000 AXNT20 KNHC 060559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Mar 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection are noted 180 nm southeast of the monsoon trough between 00N-04N between 39W-49W on either side of the ITCZ. Scattered showers are also noted between 02S-05N between 29W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf tonight, as a weak surface ridge persists across the region. The weak pressure gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate, which is keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area. A cold front enters the northern Gulf from the Florida/ Alabama Border to north central Florida. Satellite and radar imagery shows scattered showers streaming across the north central Gulf from 26N to 30N and east of 90W. To the west, a cold front extends from a 1012 mb low in northeast Texas and continues along southwest along the Texas coast into Mexico. The front will enter the western Gulf early tonight. A low pressure system is expected develop in the NW Gulf tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat evening. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a frontal boundary remains stalled over the northwestern Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary, but no convection is occurring at the moment due to widespread dry air in the mid- and upper-levels. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate easterly winds on either side of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across the southern portion of the Caribbean while light and gentle north of 15N. Scattered showers are also possible over the eastern Caribbean Sea near a weak surface trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of Colombia. A weakening stationary will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front over the western Caribbean. Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N56W to 22N71W and then to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along and ahead of the front N of 21N. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of strong 1032 mb high pressure centered near the Azores. The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. In the forecast, the stationary front will drift N and weaken Sat. Winds north of the front will become easterly Sat, and increase north of 27N late Sat. A developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed. $$ Torres