000 AXNT20 KNHC 052233 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N61W to the coast of Brazil near 01S51W. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm on either sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf this evening, as a weak surface ridge persists across the region. The weak pressure gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate, which is keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area. No significant convection is evident from radar or satellite data. A low pressure system is expected develop over the NW Gulf tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat evening. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a frontal boundary remains stalled over the northwestern Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary, but no convection is occurring at the moment due to widespread dry air in the mid- and upper-levels. Scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly winds just north of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail south of the front. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere, with highest winds noted within 90 nm north of the Colombia coast. Scattered showers are also possible over the eastern Caribbean Sea near a weak surface trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of Colombia. The stationary front will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse in the southern Caribbean through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front over the western Caribbean. Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N58W to 24N68W and then becomes stationary to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along and ahead of the front N of 23N. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of strong high pressure centered near the Azores. The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front, then shift from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat. A developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue night. $$ ERA/JPC