000 AXNT20 KNHC 051719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered showers are noted within 1000 nm on either sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 30N90W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-3 ft seas prevail across most of the basin. Seas are reaching up to 6 ft near the northern Mexican coast. No significant convection are evident from satellite imagery. High pressure will prevail across the basin through this evening. A low pressure system is expected develop in the NW Gulf tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat evening. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from east Cuba near 20N77W to the Yucatan peninsula near 19N86W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly winds just north of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail south of the front. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere, with highest winds noted within 90 nm north of the Colombia coast. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean extending from 16N64W to 09N67W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either sides of the trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of Colombia. The stationary front will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse in the southern Caribbean through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front over the western Caribbean. Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N59W to 27N65W to the southern Bahamas near 20N74W. Scattered showers are noted along and ahead of the front N of 23N between 56W-67W. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located near the Azores. The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front through Fri, then shift from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat. A developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue night. $$ ERA