000 AXNT20 KNHC 051436 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 01N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Showers are seen along the monsoon trough near the coast of Sierra Leone, E of 13W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03S-03N between 18W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge centered on 1019 mb high pressure near 30N89W dominates the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-3 ft seas across the basin. Seas are reaching up to 6 ft near the northern Mexican coast. Some low clouds are noted over the far western Gulf between 20N and 26N, but no significant showers are evident from satellite imagery. High pressure will prevail across the basin through Fri evening. A low pressure system is expected to develop in the NW Gulf Fri night, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat evening. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is draped across the NW Caribbean from east-central Cuba near 21N78W to the Yucatan peninsula near 19N87W. No significant winds or showers are associated with the boundary. Scatterometer data shows fresh NE winds near the coast of Colombia, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the region. Typical shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the area, producing isolated passing showers. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of Colombia. A stationary front from eastern Cuba to the central Yucatan Peninsula will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N59W to 27N65W to the southern Bahamas near 22N74W. The front stalls from 22N74W to Cuba near 21N76W. Showers are along and ahead of the front N of 23N between 57W-70W. A trough is behind the front from 30N62W to the northern Bahamas near 27N78W. No significant convection is associated with this feature. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located near the Azores. The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front through Fri, then shift from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat. A developing low pressure systemwill move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds.The low will drag a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue night. $$ AReinhart