000 AXNT20 KNHC 050535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 02N35W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N between 16W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge centered on 1019 mb high pressure near 29N90W dominates the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-3 ft seas across the basin. Some low clouds are noted over the far western Gulf between 20N and 26N, but no significant showers are evident from satellite imagery. High pressure will prevail across the basin through Fri. A low pressure system is expected develop in the western Gulf early Fri, then deepen and move rapidly eastward across the Gulf through Sat. The low pressure will move E of the area by Sat night but the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf on Sun, with seas building to 10 ft. CARIBBEAN SEA... A slow moving cold front is across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula near 20N87W. No significant winds or showers are associated with the boundary. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to north of Belize Fri morning, then stall and dissipate over the NW Caribbean waters Fri night and Sat. Scatterometer data shows fresh NE winds near the coast of Colombia, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the region. Typical shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the area, producing isolated passing showers. The cold front will stall overnight then dissipate and lift north of the area through Fri evening. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun, stall from the Windward Passage to Belize by Sun night, then dissipate Mon into Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N59W across the Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N78W. A narrow band of clouds and showers is noted ahead of the front north of 23N. The front will extend from 32N55W to eastern Cuba on Fri, then stall and drift northward Fri night and Sat as a low pressure moves from the Gulf of Mexico into the SW N Atlantic. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located near the Azores. The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. The cold front will weaken and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba on Fri. Northerly winds will follow the front through Fri, then shift from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N Sat night. A developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night and Sun, possibly accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds, and dragging a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue. $$ Mundell