000 AXNT20 KNHC 042314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 02N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-06N between 15W-18W. Similar convection is seen within about 75 nm N of the ITCZ between 31W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft over the eastern Gulf, and gentle NE to E winds across the western Gulf with seas of 1-3 ft, except for lingering 2 to 4 ft off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Some cloudiness are noted over the Gulf, but mainly S of 24N. The ridge will persist on Fri. A low pressure is forecast to develop over the Gulf region Fri night into Sat. This system will deepen and move rapidly toward the northeast Gulf by late Sat, dragging a cold front across the Gulf through Sun. The pressure gradient between the deepening low and high pressure to the N will result in fresh to strong northerly winds over the western Gulf on Sat. Similar wind speeds are expected over the NE Gulf, with seas to 8 ft. The low pressure will move E of the area by Sat night but the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf on Sun, with seas building to 10 ft. These marine conditions will reach the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida later on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong trade winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia with moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the south- central part of the basin. Seas to 9 ft are observed per an altimeter pass near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, except moderate northerly winds behind a cold front, that now extends from near Camaguey, Cuba to near Cozumel, Mexico. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to near Chetumal, Mexico by Fri morning, then stall and gradually dissipate over the Caribbean waters late Fri into Sat. A narrow band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is associated with the front. As it is normal for this time of the year, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. High pressure building southward across the western Atlantic, Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will bring an increase in winds over the NW Caribbean, in the lee of Cuba Sun night into Mon. Under this patter pattern, expect also increasing winds across the Windward passage and the central Caribbean later on Mon. Th forecast calls for NE winds of 20-30 kt and seas of 7-9 ft, except 9 to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1003 mb low pressure located E of Bermuda near 32N58W to Camaguey, Cuba. A narrow band of mainly low clouds is associated with the front. Some shower activity is noted ahead of the front N of 27N. The front will reach from 32N60W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, then stall and drift northward on Sat as a low pressure moves from the Gulf of Mexico into the SW N Atlantic. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1025 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 32N32W. The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong mid-upper westerly winds are transporting abundant moisture from NE South America all the way to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Looking ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to affect the western Atlantic and the regional waters of E Florida on Sat likely producing strong to near gale-force winds. The low is forecast to move rapidly from central Florida toward Bermuda Sat night into Sun, dragging another cold front across the SW N Atlantic through Sun night and Mon, when the front is forecast to reach the SE waters and Hispaniola. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue. $$ GR