000 AXNT20 KNHC 022258 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia will produce strong east winds over much of the south- central Caribbean this week. Gale conditions are expected off the coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night. Seas in the area will reach to 12 ft. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: In the wake of a cold front moving into the Central Gulf of Mexico, northerly gales offshore Veracruz, Mexico will weaken to below gale force this evening. Fresh to strong winds will continue overnight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will gradually subside into Wed morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING: SW winds ahead of a cold front will increase to gale force Wed morning offshore the SE U.S. coast. Gale conditions will spread east as the front progresses, but remain mainly N of 28N. By Thu, the front will stretch from Bermuda to the Bahamas, with gales still continuing SE of Bermuda, ahead of the boundary. Seas of 10 to 13 will accompany the strongest winds. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N25W, to the equator at 33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator and 10N between 18W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on diminishing gales offshore Veracruz, Mexico. A 1017 low pressure center is located just S of SE Louisiana. A cold front extends SW from it into the Bay of Campeche. To the east, stationary front is located from the low to just N of Tampa Bay. Although scattered lighter showers all located along the cold front, most significant convection is noted N of the stationary front, N of 27N and E of 92W. With surfacting ridging occurring behind the cold front, fresh to strong N winds dominate the far western Gulf. Fresh NE winds are occurring north of the stationary front, with generally moderate S winds elsewhere. Seas average 6 to 9 ft in the western Gulf and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. The low pressure will move toward the NE Gulf tonight, dragging the cold front across the western Gulf. The stationary front will lift northward and be N of the area by tonight. Gale-force winds occurring in the Veracruz area will diminish below gale force by this evening. The cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Wed morning, and move across the SE Gulf Wed night into Thu. High pressure is expected in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to develop over the Gulf waters during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features Section above for details on continuing gales off the coast of Colombia. Sandwiched between high pressure to the north and low pressure over South America, fresh trades prevail over the Caribbean Basin. Generally dry conditions also prevail. Seas average 5 to 8 ft, except 8 to 10 ft in the SW Caribbean, due to the higher winds off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Thu. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Seas to 8 ft are still noted across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Long period northerly swell will reach again the region late on Thu, and continue through the weekend building seas up to 8 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section above for details on develop gales in the SW Atlantic. A cold front stretches from 32N62W to just N of the Bahamas, where it then becomes stationary and extends to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. All behind the front, scattered moderate convection is occurring. N of 27N, fresh to strong SW winds are occuring ahead of the front, with fresh to locally strong NE winds behind the front. Farther S, but N of 20N, winds are mainly gentle as the area is dominated by high pressure centered near 25N60W, of 1020 mb. Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from 32N28W to 23N48W. Scattered moderate convection still remains within about 30 nm of this boundary. S of 20N, moderate to fresh trades prevail, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Between 20N and 27N, seas average 4 to 6 ft, with areas farther north experiencing seas of 8 to 10 ft. The front will transition to a warm front in response to low pressure forecast to move off the coast of Georgia by early Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen and track NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by strong to gale-force winds and building seas. Gale conditions are expected across the northern waters Wed and Wed night. In its wake, high pressure will build over the area through Fri night. Looking ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to affect the SW N Atlantic during the upcoming weekend producing gale force winds over the N waters. $$ KONARIK