785 AXNT20 KNHC 021806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 02 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The 12-hour forecast consists of: NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 78W. GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: NW-to-N gale-force winds are present, from 22N to 25N from 96W westward. These wind speeds and sea heights are to the west of the current 1016 mb low pressure center and cold front, that are in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect the wind speeds to slow down, to less than gale-force, tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The 24-hour forecast consists of a cold front along 31N80W 29N81W. Expect SW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, to the N OF 30N to the E of the cold front to 78W. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W, 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 03N39W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is from 10N southward between 18W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida along 28N. The front becomes stationary from Tampa in Florida, along 28N in the Gulf of Mexico, to 28N90W. The front becomes warm from 28N90W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 28N93W. A cold front continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 20N94W, to the coast of Mexico at 19N96W, and then inland to 22N100W. The front is stationary, inland, from 22N100W, to 24N100W, and to 25N101W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, from 27N northward from 92W eastward. Overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from the 1016 mb low pressure and cold front westward. A surface ridge passes through 27N99W in the Deep South of Texas, to 20N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The current stationary front is along 27N, and it extends from near Tampa Bay to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 28N93W. A cold front continues from the low center to near Veracruz, Mexico. The low pressure center will move toward the NE Gulf tonight, dragging the cold front across the western Gulf of Mexico. The stationary front will move northward, and be to the N of the area by tonight. Current gale-force winds off the coast of the Tampico region of Mexico will reach the Veracruz area this morning. The cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to close to the NW Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, and move across the SE Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure is expected in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows a trough that passes through 17N61W near the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the Peninsula de la Guajira of N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 80W westward. This wind flow is related to broad anticyclonic wind flow that is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, from southern Mexico to Nicaragua. The GFS model for 500 mb, shows broad anticyclonic wind flow, that is to the south of a 79W Cuba anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad anticyclonic wind flow, that is to the south of an Atlantic Ocean 24N71W anticyclonic circulation center. A surface trough extends from 18N75W, beyond the Windward Passage. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, beyond the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 12N southward from 74W westward. Expect NE-to-E winds from 25 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 78W. Expect NE-to-E winds from 20 knots to 25 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere, from 09.5N to 16N between 72W and 82W. Expect, also, NE-to-E winds from 20 knots to 25 knots, and sea heights to 8 feet, from 15N TO 17.5N between 70W and 75W. Minimal gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue to blow elsewhere in the south central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Seas to 8 feet still are present in the waters that are to the E of the Lesser Antilles. Long period northerly swell will reach the region again late on Thursday, and continue through the weekend, building the seas to 8 feet. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N67W to 30N74W, to the eastern coast of Florida along 28N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N northward from 50W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 25N northward from 50W westward. A surface trough extends from 24N71W, to the SE Bahamas, beyond the Windward Passage to 18N75W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. A stationary front passes through 32N30W, to 30N37W and 25N46W. A surface trough continues from 25N46W to 22N49W and to 14N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 150 nm on either side of the stationary front and surface trough. A 1022 mb high pressure center near 28N59W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between the 24N71W-SE Bahamas surface trough and the 32N30W-25N46W-14N50W frontal boundary. The current cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected N of this boundary today. The front will transition to a warm front, in response to low pressure that is forecast to move off the coast of Georgia, by early Wednesday morning. The low pressure will strengthen, and track NE through Thursday night. The low pressure center will push a strong cold front across the waters that are to the N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded by and followed by strong to gale-force winds and building seas. Gale-force wind conditions are expected in the northern waters on Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the area through Friday night in the wake of the cold front. It is possible that another low pressure system may affect the area during the upcoming weekend. $$ mt/gr