000 AXNT20 KNHC 020508 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Mar 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between 1021 mb high pressure to the north of the area near 28N61W and 1006 mb low pressure over Colombia is leading to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean. Gale conditions are occurring early this morning offshore Colombia, with another pulse of gales expected overnight tonight. Seas this morning will peak near 15 ft within the gale area. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low in the NW Gulf near 27N94W to near Tampico Mexico. A recent ASCAT pass from around 02/0300 UTC indicates that gale force N winds are already occurring in the waters offshore of Tampico Mexico north of the front. These gales will reach the waters offshore Veracruz Mexico later this morning as the cold front moves southward along the coast of Mexico. Seas will build to 10-12 ft this morning. Conditions will improve late tonight. Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are expected Wed through Wed night in the western Atlantic, north of 26N, in association with an area of low pressure and an attendant cold front. Expect gales on both sides of the low and front as they move eastward on Wed. By Wed night, the front will extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas. Seas in the area of the gales will build to 12 to 15 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about these Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N24W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N-06N between 22W-30W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 31W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to a 1014 mb low pressure near 27N94W to Tampico Mexico. Scattered showers are along and north of the front from the coast of Texas to the Florida Big Bend. The latest ASCAT pass from around 02/0300 UTC indicates that gale force winds are already occurring offshore Tampico. Near gale force N winds are elsewhere near the coast of NE Mexico between Brownsville and Tampico. See above for details on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf of Mexico. The ASCAT data show gentle winds covering the southern Gulf to the south of the cold front. Strong NE winds are north of the front over the NE and north-central Gulf. The cold front extending from the low pressure to Tampico will continue moving southward through the SW Gulf early this morning. Gale-force winds will continue near Tampico early this morning, then develop near the Veracruz area later this the morning. The front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche by tonight, and from Tampa Bay Florida to near the NW Yucatan Peninsula on Wed. The front will move across the SE Gulf Wed night into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level ridging dominates the western Caribbean, leading to subsidence and dry conditions. An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic to the NE Caribbean Sea. This is enhancing scattered clouds and isolated showers across the eastern Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass from Monday evening shows strong trades across the central Caribbean, generally south of 16N between 72W-79W. Strong NE winds are also seen in the Mona Passage. Fresh trades are elsewhere from 10N-18N, with gentle to moderate E winds in the NW Caribbean, south of Cuba and in the Yucatan Channel. Gale force winds are expected early this morning offshore Colombia. See above for details on the Gale Warning. Seas are 8-11 ft across the central Caribbean, except for 11-13 ft offshore of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Minimal gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia early this morning, and then again tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through this morning. Fresh to strong winds will continue to blow across the remainder of the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N76W to Jacksonville Florida. Scattered moderate showers are near and north of the front. Fresh NNW winds are to the north of this front offshore of Georgia. A 1021 mb high pressure is near 28N61W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure westward to the NW Bahamas to South Florida. Gentle anticyclonic winds are observed over the western Atlantic from 23N-29N. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are across the waters south of 22N, and these winds will continue through early this morning. In the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front is analyzed from 32N34W to 29N40W to 26N44W. A surface trough continues from 26N44W to 17N48W. An upper-level trough axis is from 31N37W to 25N42W to the NE Caribbean Sea. Upper-level diffluence well to the southeast of the upper-trough axis is leading to scattered showers from 08N-23N between 28W-48W. A 1024 mb high pressure is centered over the Madeira Islands. Seas are currently 6 to 8 ft over most of the Atlantic, except 4-6 ft near surface ridge along 27/28N across the western half of the basin. For the forecast, the cold front from 32N76W to Jacksonville Florida will reach from 31N68W to near Cape Canaveral shortly after sunrise this morning. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will follow the front, forecast to extend as a stationary front across 28N by this evening. The front will transition to a warm front in response to low pressure forecast to move off the coast of the Carolinas on early Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen and track NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by strong to minimal gale-force winds and building seas. See above for details on the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build over the area through Fri night. North swell will continue to support seas of 6-8 ft over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Tue. A second swell event will reach the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles Thu night and continue through the weekend, with seas of 7-10 ft possible. $$ Hagen