000 AXNT20 KNHC 012245 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure over South America will lead to strong trade winds this week over the south-central Caribbean. Gale conditions will develop offshore Colombia this evening and prevail overnight, with another pulse of gales Tue night. Seas early Tue morning will peak to 15 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is moving off the Texas coast late this afternoon. This front will race southward offshore the east coast of Mexico, and induce gales offshore Tampico, Mexico tonight. Gales will also develop behind the front near Veracruz, Mexico, Tue. Seas are expected to build to 9-12 ft. Conditions will improve Tue night. Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Tue night, with SW gales developing ahead of it Wed morning, N of 27N. These winds will spread E as the front moves E, through Wed night, when the front will reach a Bermuda to central Bahamas line. Seas in the area of the gales will build to 12 to 15 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 02N27W to 01N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 18W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning across the western Gulf tonight and Tue. Ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast late this afternoon, generally moderate southerly flow prevails across the basin. Moisture surging northward ahead of the front, combined with a pre-frontal trough, is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf, within 120 nm of shore. Showers and thunderstorms are also ongoing on both sides of the cold front moving offshore Texas. The cold front has also helped to diminish the front that was previously along the northern Gulf coast. Seas throughout the basin are in the 3 to 6 ft range. The aforementioned cold front will stall tonight. A low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary dragging a new cold across the western Gulf tonight into Tue morning. Gale-force winds will develop near Tampico early Tue morning, and then near the Veracruz area later in the morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche early Tue afternoon, from near the Florida Big Bend area to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue night, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near NW Yucatan peninsula on Wed. The front will move across the SE Gulf Wed night into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds continue to dominate the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, except for the Windward and Mona Passages, where locally strong NE winds are occurring. Generally dry conditions prevail over the basin. Seas in the SW Caribbean range from 8 to 11 ft, with 6 to 9 ft seas in the central and eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 7 ft in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue to blow across the remainder of the south- central Caribbean through Wed night. Similar wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue morning. Otherwise, north swell will continue to support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN See Special Features section above for gale conditions forecast to develop in the SW Atlantic ahead of a cold front moving offshore the SE U.S. coast Wed. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered SE of Bermuda near 29N63W. Another high pressure, of 1022 mb, is centered north of the Canary Islands at 33N19W. Between the two highs, a dissipating stationary front extends from 32N31W to 28N40W, with a shear line continuing to 20N54W. A surface trough ahead of the shear line stretches from 23N44W to 15N48W. Scattered showers and a few weakening thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the stationary boundary. Seas average 6 to 9 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near the high pressure SE of Bermuda. High pressure over the area will support fresh to locally strong NE-E across the waters south of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move off NE Florida this evening, then reach from 31N68W to near Cape Canaveral by Tue morning. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will follow the front, forecast to extend as a stationary front across 28N by Tue evening. The front will transition to a warm front in response to low pressure forecast to move off the coast of the Carolinas on early Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen and track NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by strong to minimal gale-force winds and building seas. In its wake, high pressure will build over the area through Fri night. $$ KONARIK