592 AXNT20 KNHC 011756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Mar 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE-E winds continue over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through early this afternoon with seas building to 16 ft. Gales will return again during the overnight hours tonight and Tue night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off the coast of Texas today with strong winds reaching gale force at night over Tampico, Mexico adjacent waters. Gale force winds will reach the region of Veracruz early on Tue and prevail through the evening hours as the front progresses over the central Bay of Campeche. Seas are expected to build to 9-12 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 02N27W to 01N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 18W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning across the western Gulf tonight and Tue. Moderate to fresh return flow continues across the basin ahead of the next cold front to come off the coast of Texas today. Deep-layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather conditions across most of the basin, except off the NW Gulf coast where scattered showers and thunderstorms are progressing ahead of the front. Radar imagery as of 1730 UTC noted scattered thunderstorms offshore of New Orleans, LA to Pensacola, FL. Additionally, fog persists within 120 nm off the NW Gulf coast and 60 nm of the NE Gulf coast due to warm moist air brought in by southerly winds over cool waters. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft, with heights reaching 7 ft in the central Gulf. High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to the central Gulf will slide eastward today as the cold front approaches the Gulf region. The front will enter the northern Gulf waters this afternoon, then stall tonight. A low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary dragging a new cold across the western Gulf tonight into Tue morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche early Tue afternoon, from the western Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue night, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to NW Yucatan peninsula on Wed. The front will move across the SE Gulf Wed night into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data from this morning revealed fresh to strong trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Strong NE winds are noted within the Windward and Mona Passages. Most of the basin continues to be under the influence of dry air subsidence from aloft, thus supporting fair weather, with the exception being some passing showers affecting the NE Caribbean and the coastal waters of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas are 6-9 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, with smaller swell in the western Caribbean ranging 3-5 ft. Fresh to strong winds will blow across the remainder of the south-central Caribbean through Wed night. Similar wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue morning. Otherwise, north swell will continue to support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN A 1024 mb high pressure is centered in the western Atlantic near 30N64W, and a second high pressure of 1022 mb is centered in the eastern Atlantic near 31N24W. Between the two highs, a weakening stationary front extends from 32N31W to 27N45W where a shear line continues to 20N54W. Fresh NE winds are behind the shear line and north of 18N, which transition to E winds and become fresh to locally strong near the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within 50 nm of the aforementioned stationary front north of 29N. A surface trough ahead of the shear line stretches from 23N44W to 15N48W. The high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E across the waters south of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move off the SE U.S this evening, then reach from 31N66W to 28N80W by Tue morning. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will follow the front, forecast to extend as a stationary front across 28N by Tue evening. The front will transition to a warm front in response to low pressure forecast to move off the coast of the Carolinas on early Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen and track NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. In its wake, high pressure will build over the area through Fri night. $$ Mora