000 AXNT20 KNHC 011108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force winds over Colombia adjacent waters will continue through early this afternoon with seas building to 16 ft. Gale-force NE to E winds will resume tonight and then again Tue night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off the coast of Texas today with strong winds reaching gale force at night over Tamiahua, Mexico adjacent waters. Gale force winds will reach the region of Veracruz early on Tue and prevail through the evening hours as the front progresses over the central Bay of Campeche. Seas are expected to build to 13 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N11W and continues to 02N21W. The ITCZ begins near 02N21W and continues to 0N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 15W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning across the western Gulf tonight and Tue. Moderate to fresh return flow prevails across the basin ahead of the next cold front to come off the coast of Texas today. Locally strong winds are observed off the western Yucatan peninsula in the E Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough that will weaken this afternoon. Stable dry air prevails aloft, which is supporting fair weather, except within 120 nm off the NW Gulf coast and 60 nm of the NE Gulf coast where shallow moisture continue to support dense fog. Otherwise, seas are in the 3 to 6 ft this morning. Tonight the front will stall from 29N83W to a low pressure near 27N93W. A cold front will extend from the low to Tamiahua, Mexico with strong to near gale force winds behind, rapidly reaching gale force through Tue evening as the tail of the front reaches the central Bay of Campeche. The stationary front will transition to a warm front that lifts north of the Gulf late on Tue, and the cold front will weaken as it reaches the central Gulf Tue night into Wed, the southeastern Gulf during Wed and east of the Gulf late Wed night. In the wake of this front, high pressure will shift eastward across the northern and central Gulf Fri and Fri night as another low forms along a front that may possibly enter the NW and north-central Gulf areas. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Except for some passing showers in the NE Caribbean, the remainder basin continues under the influence of dry air subsidence from aloft, thus supporting fair weather. Strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean will continue through Wed, except in the south-central basin where strong winds will prevail through Fri night. Gale force winds near the coast of Colombia will continue through this morning, then pulse at night and into the early morning hours through Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Tue morning. Similarly, fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras will prevail through Tue morning. Otherwise, north swell will continue to support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Tue morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure over the SW N Atlc waters will continue to support fresh to strong east winds across the waters south of 24N through tonight. A cold front will move over the far NW waters tonight, then transition to a stationary front as its reaches from near 28N65W to 28N80W Tue night. Strong east winds will develop north of this boundary Tue and Tue night as strong high pressure to its north builds southward. The stationary front will transition to a warm front in response to low pressure forecast to move off the coast of the Carolinas on Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen and track NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. In its wake, high pressure will build over the area through Fri night. Otherwise, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N32W to 25N45W where a shealine continues to 19N53W. Both features will dissipate by Tue. $$ Ramos