000 AXNT20 KNHC 010544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Mar 01 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia today then will pulse to gale force each night through Wed. Seas in this area are currently ranging from 10 to 16 ft. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected at night, with seas building to 18 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move southward across the western Gulf late Mon through Tue and produce strong to gale-force winds to the NW of the front. The strongest winds are expected offshore of the Tampico area Mon night, and then across the Veracruz area much of the day Tue. Seas will build to 8-12 ft within the area of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 06N11W and continues to 03N17W. The ITCZ begins near 03N17W and continues to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundaries between 14W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information about a developing Gale Warning across the western Gulf Mon night and Tue. High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to the central Gulf will slide ESE tonight as a cold front approaches the Texas coast. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no significant precipitation noted across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft over the western Gulf, up to 6 ft in the Florida Straits, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Marine fog prevails about 60 nm off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana due to very moist air blowing over cooler waters. This pattern will likely continue through the next few days. The next cold front will move over the NW Gulf this afternoon. From Mon night through Tue afternoon a stationary front will be oriented E to W over the NE Gulf to weak low pressure near south- central Louisiana. The cold front will extend from the low southwestward to the SW Gulf at that time. Strong gale force north winds are expected over the far western Gulf south of 26N Mon night into Tue. The stationary front will transition to a warm front that lifts north of the Gulf late on Tue, and the cold front will weaken as it reaches the central Gulf Tue night into Wed, the southeastern Gulf during Wed and east of the Gulf late Wed night. In the wake of this front, high pressure will shift eastward across the northern and central Gulf Fri and Fri night as another low forms along a front that may possibly enter the NW and north-central Gulf areas. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Latest scatterometer data continues to depict gale-force winds over the south central Caribbean south of 14N between 74W-79W. Moderate to strong easterly winds prevail west of 70W (including the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras), while moderate to fresh easterlies are noted east of 70W. Seas in the western Caribbean range from 4-7 ft reaching 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as within the Windward Passage. Seas 6-9 ft over the remainder of the basin, and area as high as 16 ft off the NW coast of Colombia. Upper-level ridging continues to provide dry air subsidence, maintaining fair weather conditions across the basin. A few quick passing showers embedded in the trade wind flow are impacting the east and central Caribbean, as well as the coastal waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean will continue through Wed, except in the south-central basin where strong winds will prevail through Fri night. Gale force winds near the coast of Colombia will continue through early on Mon, then pulse at night and into the early morning hours through Wed. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon while fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras will prevail through Tue. Otherwise, north swell will continue to support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominates the waters west of 50W, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N65W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N32W to 26N44W, then a shearline extends from that point to 21N52W. Behind the front, NW winds are fresh to strong, while ahead of the boundary, there are moderate easterlies. A surface trough extends from 24N41W to 19N46W with scattered showers. Strong E to SE flow remains north of Cuba and Hispaniola, becoming fresh to moderate north of 24N. Wave heights of 9-10 ft are noted near the Windward and Mona Passages, 8-9 ft waves near the eastern Bahamas, and waves of 4- 8 ft elsewhere over the open tropical Atlantic waters. High pressure over the area will continue to support fresh to strong east winds across the waters south of 24N through Mon night. A cold front will move over the far NW waters Mon night, then transition to a stationary front as its reaches from near 28N65W to 31N79W Tue night. Strong east winds will develop north of this boundary on Tue as strong high pressure to its north builds southward. The stationary front will lift back to the north as a warm front in response to low pressure that will move off the coast of the Carolinas on Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen as it quickly tracks NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. In its wake, high pressure will build over the area through Fri night. $$ ERA/jif