000 AXNT20 KNHC 281745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia today through Mon then will pulse at night through Wed. Seas in this area are ranging from 10 to 16 ft. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected at night, with seas building to 18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W and continues to 04N19W. The ITCZ begins near 04N19W and continues to 03N30W to 01N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough/ITCZ axis from 01N to 07N and E of 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no significant precipitation seen across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft over the western Gulf and up to 6 ft in the Florida Straits, with 3-5 ft elsewhere. Marine fog prevails about 60 nm off the coast of the U.S. throughout the northern Gulf waters and west of the Florida peninsula due to very moist air over cooler waters. Some areas will see breaks in the fog for a few hours during the afternoon, with this pattern likely continuing through early next week. High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic over the basin will change little through this evening. The ridge will then begin to slide ESE as a cold front approaches the Texas coast. The front will move over the NW Gulf Mon afternoon. From Mon night through Tue afternoon a stationary front will be oriented E to W over the NE Gulf to weak low pressure near south-central Louisiana. The cold front will extend from the low southwestward to the SW Gulf at that time. Strong to near gale-force winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the far western Gulf Tue. The stationary front will transition to a warm front that lifts north of the Gulf late on Tue, and the cold front will weaken as it reaches the central Gulf Wed, the southeastern Gulf Thu and to just east of the area by late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. An ASCAT pass at 1400 UTC reveals fresh to strong trades across most of the Caribbean sea, with the strongest winds occurring in the central/south-central Caribbean. Flow near the Yucatan Channel becomes fresh. Seas in the western Caribbean range from 3-6 ft reaching 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as within the Windward Passage. Seas 6-9 ft over the remainder of the basin, building to 16 ft off the NW coast of Colombia. Upper- level ridging continues to provide dry air subsidence, maintaining fair weather conditions across the basin and limiting shower activity. A few training cells in the trade wind flow are impacting the NE Caribbean, as well as the coastal waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean will continue through Wed, except in the south-central basin where strong to near gale force winds will prevail through Thu night. Gale force winds near the coast of Colombia will continue through early on Mon, then pulse at night and into the early morning hours through Wed. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. Otherwise, north swell will continue to support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominates the waters west of 50W. Strong return flow remains north of Cuba and Hispaniola, becoming fresh to moderate north of 25N. Higher wave heights of up to 10 ft are noted near the Windward and Mona Passages, as well as heights of 9 ft near the eastern Bahamas, with seas 4-8 ft elsewhere over the open tropical Atlantic waters. Farther east, a middle to upper-level trough supports a cold front over the central Atlc, which extends from 32N34W to 29N39W where the front stalls and continues to 27N43W. A shear line follows the tail end of the boundary, stretching to 23N53W. Behind the front, NW winds are fresh to strong, while ahead of the boundary, there are moderate easterlies. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms have formed along the shear line between 44W-50W. Moreover, the ASCAT pass from this morning revealed a surface trough stretching from 26N40W to 20N42W with no significant weather associated with it. Seas over the open waters are mainly 7-10 ft. High pressure over the area will continue to support fresh to strong E winds across the waters south of 24N through Mon night. A cold front will move over the far northwest waters Mon night, then transition to a stationary front as its reaches from near 28N65W to 31N79W Tue night. Strong east winds will develop north of this boundary Tue and Tue night as strong high pressure to its north builds southward. The stationary front will lift back to the north as a warm front in response to low pressure that will move northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to off the coast of the Carolinas on Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen as it quickly tracks northeastward through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. $$ Mora