000 AXNT20 KNHC 281029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia today through Mon then will pulse at night through Wed. Seas in this area are ranging from 10 to 16 ft. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected at night, with seas building to 18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ begins near 05N20W and continues to 03N37W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 08N E of 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh return flow with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range are across the basin this morning. Dry air subsidence from middle to upper level rigding support fair weather, except within 120 nm off the NW gulf coast and within 60 nm of the NE basin coast where dense fog continue to be reported. Surface ridging across the region will begin to slide ESE late today as a cold front approaches the Texas coast. The front will move over the NW Gulf Mon afternoon. From Mon night through Tue afternoon a stationary front will be oriented E to W over the NE Gulf to weak low pressure near south-central Louisiana. The cold front will extend from the low southwestward to the SW Gulf at that time. The stationary front will transition to a warm front that lifts north of the Gulf late on Tue, and the cold front will weaken as it reaches the central Gulf Wed, the southeastern Gulf Thu and to just east of the area by late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Windy conditions are across most of the Caribbean with seas in the range of 8 to 12 ft. Near gale to gale force winds are across a portion of the south-central and SW Caribbean with seas building to 18 ft. Dry air subsidence from aloft continue to provide fair weather conditions, except in the NE Caribbean where patches of shallow moisture are supporting isolated showers. Similar shower activity is occurring over Honduras and Nicaragua adjacent waters. Strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean will continue through Wed, except in the south-central basin where strong to near gale force winds will prevail through Thu night. Gale force winds near the coast of Colombia will continue through early on Mon, then pulse at night and into the early morning hours through Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. Otherwise, N swell will continue to support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure is the dominant feature across the SW and SE N Atlc waters, both supporting a broad area of fresh to strong winds. Over the SW N Atlc, this area is S of 24N between 60W and the Great Bahama Bank near 77W where seas range beteen 8 to 9 ft. Over the far E Atlc, fresh to strong NE winds are observed from 10N to 21N E of 27W, including the Cape Verde Islands. Otherwise, a middle to upper level trough, supports a cold front over the central Atlc, which extends from 31N35W to 25N48W with no weather associated with it. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind this front with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. High pressure over the area will continue to support fresh to strong E winds across the waters south of 24N through Mon night. A cold front will move over the far NW waters Mon night, reach from near 30N54W to 30N78W Tue night when it will transition to a stationary front. The stationary front will lift back to the N as a warm front in response to a developing low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas on Wed morning. The low pressure will quickly track NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters NNE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. $$ Ramos