000 AXNT20 KNHC 280536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue tonight and through the next 48 hours within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia. Seas in this area are ranging from 10 to 16 ft. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected at night, with seas forecast to reach 15-18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either sides of the boundaries mainly between 10W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin extending from the west Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no significant precipitation noted across the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft prevail over the western and southern Gulf, while seas up to 6 ft are noted in the Florida Straits area. Marine fog in nearshore Gulf waters will likely develop during the early morning hours through early next week. High pressure ridging will change little through Sun. The ridge will then begin to slide ESE through Sun evening as a cold front approaches the Texas coast. The front will move over the NW Gulf Mon afternoon. From Mon night through Tue afternoon a stationary front will be oriented E to W over the NE Gulf to weak low pressure near south-central Louisiana. The cold front will extend from the low southwestward to the SW Gulf at that time. The stationary front will transition to a warm front that lifts north of the Gulf late on Tue, and the cold front will weaken as it reaches the central Gulf Wed, the southeastern Gulf Thu and to just east of the area by late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Fair weather prevails across the basin under the influence of a middle to upper-level anticyclone covering the area. ASCAT data continues to depict fresh to strong trade winds in the central and eastern parts of the basin, including the Windward Passage. Scattered, fast-moving showers are embedded in the trade wind flow, moving across the basin. Seas are in the 7-12 ft range across the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh ESE trades are over the western Caribbean, with seas ranging from 3- 6 ft. High pressure north of the region along with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid- week, and fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. Large seas will remain over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 40N56W. To the east, a cold front extends into the area near 31N39W and continues SW to 25N49W, where the boundary transitions to a shearline to 24N60W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE winds north of the shearline, while moderate winds are noted south of it. Another area of fresh to strong E winds prevails south of 25N between 63W-80W. East of the front, surface ridging prevails with gentle to moderate winds noted north of 24N, becoming fresh south of 24N over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally strong winds are over the waters from the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda, with 7-10 ft seas across the waters north of Puerto Rico to 25N. Over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, seas are mostly in the 8-10 ft range. High pressure will remain over the area into early next week. A cold front will move over the far NW waters early Mon evening afternoon, reach from near 31N67W to 28N74W early on Tue while becoming stationary to south-central Florida. The cold front will shift E of 65W Wed, while the stationary front lifts back to the N as a warm front in response to developing low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas. The low pressure will quickly track NE Wed through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters NNE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. $$ ERA/jif