742 AXNT20 KNHC 271801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and sea heights ranging from 10 to 16 ft are present within about 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia. Winds will continue to pulse to gale-force for the next few days, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between the Colombian low and high pressure over the western Atlantic. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected at night. Seas are forecast to reach 15- 18 ft during the periods of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N30W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm S of the monsoon trough axis between 09W-16W. Similar convection is noted from 02N-05N between 20W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no significant precipitation seen across the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft over the western and southern Gulf and up to 6 ft in the Florida Straits. Dense marine fog continues to impact much of the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle, with some areas seeing breaks in the fog for a few hours during the afternoon. Marine fog in these nearshore Gulf waters will likely continue through early next week, Moderate to occasionally fresh southeasterly winds will continue across the Gulf into early next week. A weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf on Tue, then stall and weaken to a trough on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the influence of a middle to upper-level anticyclone covering the central and western Caribbean. ACSAT data from 1418 UTC revealed fresh to strong trade winds in the central and eastern parts of the basin, including the Windward Passage. Scattered, fast-moving showers may be embedded in the trade wind flow, mainly east of 74W. Scattered showers are also noted over the coastal waters of Panama and Costa Rica. Seas are likely 6-12 ft across the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are over the western Caribbean, with seas ranging from 3-6 ft High pressure north of the region in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support strong trade winds across central Caribbean through Wed, with winds reaching gale force each night near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. Large seas will remain over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The stationary front from the previous discussion has lifted north and dissipated. A cold front extends into the from a 1012 mb centered near 37N42W. The front enters the area near 32N45W and continues W to 30N50W where the boundary transitions to a dissipating cold front. Winds behind the front are fresh to strong. Scatterometer data from this morning also revealed locally strong NE winds located north of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. East of the front, surface ridging prevails with gentle to moderate trades occurring north of 24N, becoming fresh south of 24N over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally strong winds are over the waters from the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda, with 7-10 ft seas north of Puerto Rico. Over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, seas are mostly in the 8-10 ft range. High pressure will remain over the area into early next week. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected across the waters south of 22N through Mon night. A cold front will move over the far northwest waters Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N69W to 28N73W, become stationary to south-central Florida on Tue, then weaken through Wed night. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas. $$ Mora