000
AXNT20 KNHC 271039
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong NE to E winds will continue to 
pulse to gale-force within about 90 nm of the northern coast of 
Colombia for the next few days, as the pressure gradient remains 
enhanced between the Colombian low and high pressure over the 
western Atlantic. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected 
at night. Seas are forecast to reach 15-18 ft during the periods 
of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 02N27W to 
01N36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 00N-04N between 08W-17W, and from 01N-04N between 28W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE to S winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no
significant precipitation seen across the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft 
over the western and southern Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the NE Gulf. 
Dense marine fog is impacting much of the Gulf Coast from Texas 
to the Florida Panhandle. Marine fog in these nearshore Gulf 
waters will likely continue through early next week, with some 
areas could see breaks in the fog for a few hours during the 
afternoon. 

Moderate to occasionally fresh southeasterly winds will continue 
across the Gulf into early next week. A weak cold front will 
reach the northern Gulf on Tue, then stall and weaken to a 
trough on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features above for information about an ongoing
Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the
influence of a middle to upper level anticyclone covering the 
central and western Caribbean. A few passing showers are 
possibly occurring over the eastern Caribbean between 13N and 
16N, over portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, 
and to the north of eastern Honduras. Persistent high pressure 
north of the area is supporting fresh trades over the eastern 
Caribbean and strong trades in the central Caribbean, according 
ASCAT data. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 4-7 
ft in the NW portion, and 9-14 ft across south central portions 
of the basin. 

High pressure north of the region in combination with low 
pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support strong 
trade winds across central Caribbean through Tue, with winds 
reaching gale force each night near the coast of Colombia. Fresh 
to strong northeast winds will continue across the remainder of 
the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. Large seas will 
remain over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward 
Islands through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 32N54W 
to 30N68W to 32N72W. Moderate showers are occurring along the 
frontal boundary. Surface ridging and gentle winds prevail in 
the latitude band of 24N-30N between 40W-81W. Fresh to strong 
trades prevail south of 22N, across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, 
Greater Antilles and into the Turks and Caicos. Seas of 3-5 ft 
prevail across the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda, with 
7-9 ft seas north of Puerto Rico. Over the central and eastern 
Atlantic Ocean, seas are mostly in the 8 to 10 ft range. In the 
NE Atlantic, a 1030 mb high pressure is near 35N25W. Strong NE 
to E winds prevail to the south of this high pressure, over the 
waters from the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands.

High pressure will prevail over the area into early next week. 
Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected across the waters 
south of 22N through Mon night. A cold front will move over the 
far northwest waters Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N69W to 
28N73W, become stationary to south-central Florida on Tue, then 
weaken through Wed night. The front will be followed by fresh to 
strong north to northeast winds and building seas.  

$$
Mundell