000 AXNT20 KNHC 262315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse to gale-force within about 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia for the next several nights and early mornings, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between the Colombian low and high pressure over the western Atlantic. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected tonight, Sat night and Sun night. Seas are forecast to reach 12-17 ft during the periods of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Sierra Leone/Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N25W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-06N between 05W-16W, and from 02S-04.5N between 30W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate SE to S winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no significant precipitation seen across the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft over the western and southern Gulf, according to recent buoy observations and a morning altimeter pass. Seas are likely currently 1-3 ft over the NE Gulf. Dense marine fog was impacting much of the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle, throughout much of the day but appears to have dissipated across all but the central Louisiana coastal waters. Marine fog in these nearshore Gulf waters will likely continue through early next week, with some areas could see breaks in the fog for a few hours during the afternoons. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will prevail across the Gulf into early next week. A weak cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Gulf late Mon and Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the influence of a middle to upper level anticyclone covering the central and western Caribbean. A few passing showers are possibly occurring over the eastern Caribbean between 14N and 17N, over portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, and to the north of eastern Honduras. Persistent high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean and strong trades over the central Caribbean, according to the latest ASCAT data pass from Friday morning. Seas are likely 5-8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the NW portion, and 9-13 ft across south central portions of the basin. Strong trade winds will continue across the central Caribbean through Tue night, with winds reaching gale force near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 32N57W to near 28N65W. Moderate showers are seen southeast of it to the east of 60W. A surface trough extends from 30N59W to 28N67W with isolated showers near it. Otherwise, surface ridging and gentle winds prevail in the latitude band of 24N-31N between 40W-81W. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 22N, across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Greater Antilles and into the Turks and Caicos. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda, with 6-8 ft seas north of Puerto Rico. Over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, seas are mostly in the 8 to 10 ft range. In the NE Atlantic, a 1033 mb high pressure is near 34N23W. Strong NE winds prevail to the south of this high pressure, over the waters from the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands. High pressure will remain over the subtropical western Atlantic into early next week. Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue across the waters south of 22N tonight through Mon night. A cold front will move east of northern Florida on Tue and Tue night. Large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands will persist through Mon. $$ Stripling