536 AXNT20 KNHC 261802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will continue to pulse within about 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia for the next several nights and early mornings, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between the Colombian low and high pressure over the western Atlantic. The strongest winds, up to 40 kt, are expected tonight, Sat night and Sun night. Seas are forecast to reach 12-17 ft during the periods of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Sierra Leone/Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 02N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N between 05W-17W, and from 02S-05N between 40W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate SE to S winds continue over the Gulf of Mexico with no significant precipitation. Seas are 3-5 ft over the western and southern Gulf, according to recent buoy observations and an earlier altimeter pass. Seas are likely currently 1-3 ft over the NE Gulf. Dense marine fog has been impacting much of the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. The risk of marine fog in these nearshore Gulf waters will continue through early next week. Some areas could see breaks in the fog for a few hours during the afternoons. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will prevail across the Gulf into early next week. A weak cold front may reach the western Gulf on Tue and Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features above for information about an ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail under the influence of a middle to upper level anticyclone covering the central and western Caribbean. A few passing showers are possibly occurring well to the south of Puerto Rico, over portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, and to the north of eastern Honduras. Persistent high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trades over the eastern and strong trades over the central Caribbean, according to the latest ASCAT data pass from Friday morning. These winds are likely reaching near gale force along the coast of Colombia. Seas are likely 6-9 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the NW portion of the basin. An altimeter pass from early Fri morning at 26/0805 UTC showed 8-10 ft seas in the central Caribbean north of 16N, and 9-12 ft seas from 11N-16N between 72W-74W. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue across the central Caribbean through Tue night, with winds reaching gale force near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across the remainder of the Caribbean and Atlantic Passages through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An E-W oriented dissipating stationary front is along 32N stretching from Bermuda to Savannah, GA. Moderate showers are seen south of it from 30N-32N between 68W-74W. A surface trough extends from 30N59W to 28N67W with isolated showers near it. Otherwise, surface ridging and gentle winds prevail in the latitude band of 24N-31N between 40W-81W. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 23N, across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Greater Antilles and Turks and Caicos. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda, with 6-8 ft seas north of Puerto Rico. Over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, seas are mostly in the 8 to 11 ft range. In the NE Atlantic, a 1035 mb high pressure is near 34N23W. Strong NE winds prevail to the south of this high pressure, over the waters from the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the subtropical western Atlantic into early next week. Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue across the waters south of 22N tonight through Mon night. A cold front will move east of northern Florida on Tue and Tue night. Large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands will persist through Mon. $$ Hagen