000 AXNT20 KNHC 260554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An active gale-force wind event is happening, right now, in the coastal waters of Colombia. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 13 feet, from 10N to 14N between 74W and 79W, in the coastal waters of Colombia. The gale-force wind conditions will be lasting for the next 48 hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS high seas forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, to 01N26W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward from 17W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 31N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the SE coast of Florida near 26N80W, toward NW Cuba near 23N83W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds, that are within 180 nm to the east of the surface trough. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 29N83W, southwestward, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Areas of low clouds and patchy dense fog are in the coastal plains and coastal waters from Texas to Florida. Moderate to occasionally fresh southeasterly winds will prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico, through Monday. A weak cold front may reach the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Dense fog is possible tonight in the NW and north central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows an anticyclonic circulation center that is just off the coast of northern Colombia near 10N77W. This feature is spreading upper level anticyclonic wind flow, to nearly everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. A trough enters the eastern Caribbean Sea, from Martinique to NE Venezuela. The GFS model for 500 mb, shows a trough that passes through the Martinique Passage to north central coastal Venezuela. A ridge extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to SE Cuba. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, in the 500 mb GFS model. The GFS model for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow, with two separate troughs. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond 07N78W at the coast of Colombia, about 15 nm to the south of the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 03N to 08N between 75W and 80W, within 60 nm to 135 nm to the SSE of the surface trough between 75W and 80W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 13N southward from 74W westward. Expect NE-to-E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, elsewhere, from 09N to 18N between 66W and 80W. High pressure to the north of the region, in combination with low pressure across northern Colombia, will continue to support strong trade winds in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, with winds reaching gale-force near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds will persist in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, and in the Atlantic Ocean Passages, through Monday. Large seas, to 10 feet, will prevail across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to the east of the Windward Islands, through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the SE coast of Florida near 26N80W, toward NW Cuba near 23N83W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds, that are within 180 nm to the east of the surface trough. A cold front passes through 32N40W to 31N44W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 31N44W to 30N50W and 29N56W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 26N northward between 33W and 50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1036 mb high pressure center that is near 37N20W, to 32N31W 30N39W and 25N48W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 19N northward from 50W eastward. A ridge of high pressure will prevail across the region through Monday. Fresh to strong easterly winds will develop across the waters south of 22N, from Friday night through Monday night. A cold front will move east of northern Florida on Tuesday. $$ mt/dm