000 AXNT20 KNHC 250604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Feb 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An active gale-force wind event is happening, right now, in the coastal waters of Colombia. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 78W, in the coastal waters of Colombia. The gale-force wind conditions will be lasting for the next 48 hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS high seas forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W, to 02N26W, and to 01N32W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the areas that are from 08N southward from 60W eastward. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 22N88W off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, across the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, beyond the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 28N84W, to 27N92W, 23N95W, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Weak surface ridging, building across the northern Gulf of Mexico, will persist through Friday, then move northward. Gentle to moderate SE winds should prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Sunday. Sea fog is possible in the NW Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday, and persisting into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows an anticyclonic circulation center that is just off the coast of northern Colombia near 11N76W. This feature is spreading upper level anticyclonic wind flow, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb, shows cyclonic wind flow from 68W eastward, with an east-to-west oriented trough. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area, with a NW-to-SE oriented ridge. The GFS model for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow, with a trough that runs from northern Colombia to the Windward Channel and SE Cuba. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. A surface trough is along 12N73W in northern Colombia, beyond 07N78W at the coast of Colombia, about 30 nm to the south of the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is about 45 nm to the SE of the surface trough, near 06N77W, at the coast of Colombia. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 13N southward from 73W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Expect NE-to-E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, elsewhere, from 11N to 17N between 67W and 80W. The Bermuda High to the north of the region will support fresh to strong E trade winds in the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea, through at least Monday night, with winds pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Strong NE winds should develop in the Windward Passage tonight, persisting through Monday. Fresh to strong E trade winds should develop in the Gulf of Honduras nightly, beginning on Saturday night. N swell, with E wind waves, is producing combined seas to 10 feet in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to the east of the Windward Islands. These conditions will prevail through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N49W to 30N52W, 28N60W 26N70W, to 26N75W. A surface trough continues from 26N75W, to the coast of SE Florida between Delray Beach and Boynton Beach. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from the surface trough to 30N from 77W westward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong are from 25N northward between 45W and 70W. Other rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from the cold front and surface trough, northward. A second cold front, in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean, passes through 32N14W, the Canary Islands, to 27N20W and 25N29W. A shear line continues from 25N29W, to 24N38W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 20N northward from 40W eastward. A 1036 mb high pressure center is near 38N24W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the cold front/shear line, northward. The current cold front, extending from 27N65W to the northern Bahamas, is starting to stall, and it will dissipate through early Thursday morning. Another weak cold front will move from west to east, across the waters to the north of 28N, on Thursday and Friday. High pressure, building to the north of the area behind the second front, will support fresh to strong E winds across the waters that are to the south of 22N, from late Friday through at least Monday night. N swell, combined with E wind waves in the area, will produce combined seas of about 8-9 ft on Sunday and Monday. $$ mt/ec