000 AXNT20 KNHC 240526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, are imminent, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, in the coastal waters of Colombia. The gale-force wind conditions will last until the mid-morning hours. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to return on Wednesday night. Please, read the latest NWS high seas forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W, to 06N20W and 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to the Equator along 30W, to 02S36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N southward from 03W eastward, and from 06N southward between 14W and 31W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is along 25N/26N, from Miami in Florida, to 95W in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1021 mb high pressure center is about 60 nm off the coast of the Florida Panhandle along 86W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front. The current stationary front, that is reaching from southwestern Florida to the west central Gulf of Mexico, will dissipate through Wednesday. Weak surface ridging, building across the northern Gulf in the wake the front, will persist through the end of the week. It is likely that the next frontal boundary will stall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Thursday and Thursday night. Areas of sea fog are possible in the northwest Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows an anticyclonic circulation center that is in northern Colombia. This feature is spreading upper level anticyclonic wind flow, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb, shows a ridge, that passes through the Yucatan Channel to northern Colombia. The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad and weak cyclonic wind flow. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. One area of rainshowers covers the areas that are from the central Caribbean Sea, about 125 nm to the south of Jamaica and about 240 nm to the north of Colombia, curving toward Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, beyond 07N78W at the coast of Colombia, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 12N southward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Expect E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 11N to 16N between 67W and 79W. High pressure to the north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, through Sunday. The wind speeds are forecast to pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia, mainly during the overnight and early-morning hours. Strong NE winds are possible in the Windward Passage, on Wednesday night and again on Friday night. Fresh to strong trade winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N67W to 30N70W, across the NW Bahamas, to Miami in Florida. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are from 26N northward between 45W and the cold front. A second cold front, in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean, passes through 32N23W, to 26N30W, and 23N38W. A shear line continues from 23N38W to 22N46W and 22N53W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the front and shear line, and the line that continues from 22N53W to 22N66W. A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 32N40W. A surface ridge extends from 33N28W, to the 1032 mb high pressure center, to 26N56W, and to 24N69W. The current cold front, extending from 31N68W to Miami in Florida, is supporting fresh to near gale force S to SW winds ahead of the front to near 65W and N of 27N. The front is forecast to weaken and reach from 28N65W to 26N72W by Wednesday morning, and move to the E of the area on Wednesday afternoon. Surface ridging will dominate the regional waters through Saturday, supporting fresh to strong winds S of 22N with the strongest winds being between the Turk and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. $$ mt/ec