000 AXNT20 KNHC 232328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours tonight through the latter part of the week. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft during the period of strongest winds. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving across the western Atlantic to south Florida coast this afternoon will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late this evening. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds occurring along and just ahead of the front north of 29N earlier today have lifted north of 31N and out of the area, and the gale warning has been discontinued. Strong SW winds of 20 to 30 kt are expected north of 28N and east of the front this evening and tonight as the front continues to shift eastward across the central Atlantic. Seas will remain 8-11 ft near the front during this time. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N-06.5N between 10W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 00N-06N between 30W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Marco Island, Florida to near 27N95W, offshore of Southern Texas. No significant convection is associated with this weakening boundary. 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed north of the front, across coastal SE Mississippi. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data show moderate return flow over the northwestern Gulf and gentle to moderate northerly winds elsewhere. Seas are generally slight across the Gulf, reaching 2-4 ft. The stationary front will dissipate over the Gulf tonight. Marine fog is expected to develop in the northwest Gulf by Wed night as southerly winds draw in warm, moist air over the cool shelf waters. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast Thu and Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off the coast of Colombia. See the Special Features section for details. 1030 mb high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic near 33N42W. The broad ridge is supporting persistent fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with winds expected to pulse to gale force off Colombia tonight. Seas are likely 6 to 9 ft over much of this area. Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the northwest Caribbean with seas 2-3 ft. A fairly dry pattern has set up across the Caribbean, limiting shower activity to a few clusters of cells in the trade wind flow across the western Caribbean offshore of Honduras and Nicaragua. High pressure northeast of the region will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia during overnight and early morning hours. Strong NE winds are possible in the Windward Passage Wed night and again Fri night. Fresh to strong trade winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N68W through the NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys. Late morning scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong NW winds off Florida behind the front, and fresh to strong winds ahead of the front north of 20N and west of 60W. Scattered thunderstorms remain active in a line along the boundary mainly north of 27N between 62W and 73W. A surface ridge extending from 1030 mb high pressure center near 33N42W is shifting eastward ahead of the front. Fresh NE to E winds were evident in morning ASCAT data on the eastern and southern edge of this ridge. Fresh to strong winds are occurring within 180 nm of the front on either side, north of 28N. In addition to winds, squally showers are possible along this boundary. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over much of the open Atlantic south of 32N, with a large contribution of northerly swell, except 8 to 12 ft in the area near the front north of 27N. The front is forecast to weaken and reach from 28N65W to 26N72W by Wed morning and move E of the area Wed afternoon. Surface ridging will dominate the regional waters through Sat, supporting fresh to strong winds S of 22N with the strongest winds being between the Turk and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. $$ Stripling