000 AXNT20 KNHC 231758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through the latter part of the week. Seas are forecast to build to 8-10 ft with the strongest winds. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving off the Florida coast this morning will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late this evening. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds and building seas ongoing ahead of the front north of 29N. Winds will diminish below gale- force by this afternoon. Seas will build to 9- 11 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 02N32W to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-04N between 27W- 36W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 250 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to near 25N87W, then continues west as stationary to near 26N96W, offshore of Southern Texas. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed north of the front, off southwest Louisiana near 30N90W. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data show moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf and gentle to moderate northerly winds elsewhere. Seas are likely calm across the Gulf, reaching 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the stationary portion of the front will dissipate over the western Gulf today. The cold front will continue to move SE and exit the basin this afternoon. There will be an increasing risk of marine fog in the northwest Gulf by Wed night as southerly winds draw in warm, moist air over the cool shelf waters. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast Thu and Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off the coast of Colombia. See the Special Features section for details. The high pressure now east of the Bahamas is supporting persistent fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia. Seas are likely 6 to 9 ft over much of this area. Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the northwest Caribbean with calm seas. A fairly dry pattern has set up across the Caribbean, limiting shower activity to a few training cells in the trade wind flow north of the ABC Islands. Very little shower activity is evident across the Windward and Leeward Islands. Little change is expected for the forecast through the remainder of the week. High pressure north of the region will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early morning hours. Strong NE winds are possible in the Windward Passage Wed night and again Fri night. Fresh to strong trade winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See the Special Features section for details. A cold front extends from 32N72W to Southern Florida near West Palm Beach. The boundary is moving across Southern Florida and continues westward across the Gulf of Mexico. Recent scatterometer data from 1400 UTC reveals fresh to strong NW winds off Florida behind the front, and fresh to strong winds ahead of the front north of 20N and west of 60W. Scattered thunderstorms are also active in a line along the boundary mainly north of 27N between 71W and 79W. A surface ridge extending from 1031 mb high pressure center near 32N47W is shifting eastward ahead of the front. Fresh NE to E winds are evident in ASCAT data on the eastern and southern edge of this ridge, where a weak shear line is evident from 24N40W to 22N56W. The shear line is trailing the western portion of a cold front reaching 32N29W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring within 180 nm of the front on either side, north of 28N. In addition to winds, squally showers are possible along this boundary. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over much of the open Atlantic south of 32N, with a large contribution of northerly swell, except 8 to 12 ft in the area near the front north of 27N. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the front is forecast to weaken and reach from 28N65W to 26N72W by Wed morning and move E of the area Wed afternoon. Surface ridging will dominate the regional waters through Sat, supporting fresh to strong winds S of 22N with the strongest winds being between the Turk and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. $$ Mora