767 AXNT20 KNHC 230935 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through the latter part of the week. Seas are forecast to build to 8-12 ft with the strongest winds. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving off the Florida coast this morning will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of 29N later this. Seas will build to 9-11 ft. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N35W to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-045N between 30W- 33W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 03S-01S between from 02N-05N between 40W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Apalachicola, Florida to near 27N90W, then is stationary to near Brownsville, Texas. 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed north of the front off southwest Louisiana near 29N93W. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds over the southwest Gulf and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The scatterometer data over shows winds off Veracruz were only recently near 25 kt, but have diminished a bit in the past several hours. Seas are likely 3 to 5 ft in the southwest Gulf, 2 to 4 ft in the northwest Gulf as indicated by buoy data, and 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf as noted by buoy data and a recent altimeter satellite pass. For the forecast, regarding the aforementioned front, the stationary portion of the front will dissipate over the western Gulf today. The cold front will continue to move across the eastern Gulf today, before stalling along 25N tonight and dissipating Wed. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast Thu and Thu night, and areas of sea fog is possible over the northwest Gulf by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off the coast of Colombia. See the Special Features section for details. Recent buoy observations and earlier scatterometer data showed winds have diminished over much of the northwest Caribbean, along the south coast of Cuba, and in the Windward passage as high pressure north of the area shifted eastward over the past several hours ahead of a cold front moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Florida peninsula. Seas are likely 4 to 5 ft in the Windward Passage, but buoy observations and altimeter satellite data indicate seas are 2 to 4 ft across the northwest Caribbean. The high pressure now east of the Bahamas is supporting persistent fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia. Seas are likely 6 to 9 ft over much of this area, except up to 12 ft off Colombia. A fairly dry pattern has set up across the Caribbean, limiting shower activity to a few training cells in the trade wind flow north of the ABC Islands, and to a lesser extent over Puerto Rico. Very little shower activity is evident across the Windward and Leeward Islands. Little change is expected for the forecast through the remainder of the week. High pressure north of the region will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early morning hours. Strong NE winds are possible in the Windward Passage Wed night and again Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See the Special Features section for details. A cold front is moving across north central Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Buoy and ship observations indicate fresh to strong SW winds off northeast Florida ahead of the front, with seas at least 8 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are also active in a line mainly north of 29N between 73W and 77W. A surface ridge extending from 1028 mb high pressure near 34N52W to South Florida is shifting eastward ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are evident in buoy data on the south edge of this ridge, where a weak shear line is evident from 22N60W to 23N70W. In addition to the winds, squally showers are possible along this shear line. The shear line is the trailing western portion of a cold front reaching from 32N30W to 22N60W. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 180 nm either side of the front, north of 27N. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over much of the open Atlantic south of 32N, with a large contribution of northerly swell, except 8 to 12 ft in the area near the front north of 27N. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the cold front currently moving across northeast Gulf of Mexico and north Florida will move off the NE Florida coast tonight, and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds this morning. Weak ridging will extend from Bermuda to northeast Florida from mid week through Sat. $$ Christensen