000 AXNT20 KNHC 230505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through the latter part of the week. Seas are forecast to build to 8-12 ft with the strongest winds. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off the Florida coast by tonight and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of 29N today. Seas will build to 9-11 ft. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 02N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 25W-40W. Similar convection can be found from 02N-06N between 40W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Panama City, Florida to near Brownsville, Texas. Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate winds on either side of the front. The same ASCAT pass provided observations of fresh to locally strong northerly winds over the Bay of Campeche. These winds are funneling through the Chivela pass into the Tehuantepec region. A surface trough is analyzed over the NE Gulf while another surface trough is over the Yucatan peninsula. Low-level clouds with possible light rain are noted over the western Gulf mainly S of 26N W of 92W. This cloudiness is affecting the Veracruz area. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall along 25N by tonight, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast Thu and Thu night, and areas of sea fog are possible over the northwest Gulf by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off the coast of Colombia. See the Special Features section for details. Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to locally strong trade winds over much of the east and central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Lighter winds are noted in the lee of Cuba. Winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba have diminished as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh winds in these regions will resume Wed night and pulse to fresh to strong again by Fri night as high pressure builds once again north of the basin. Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will continue to move westward across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds in the east and central Caribbean will continue through Sat night with pulses to minimal gale force off the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. Seas are forecast to build to 8-12 ft over the south-central Caribbean with the strongest winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See the Special Features section for details. Recent satellite derived wind data and buoy observations indicate fresh to strong southerly winds N of 29N between 72W-80W ahead of the cold front forecast to move off the Florida coast by tonight. A cold front extends across the Atlantic forecast waters from 31N36W to 23N56W, then continues westward along 22N-23N as a weakening stationary front to just N of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong northerly winds are observed per scatterometer data in the wake of the front E of 50W, while a belt of fresh to locally strong NE-E winds is noted N of the front to about 25N W of 50W. Similar wind speeds are seen just N of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong SW winds are also ahead of the front N of 29N. The weakening stationary front will dissipate today. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a weak 1023 mb high pressure located near 24N38W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. $$ GR