000 AXNT20 KNHC 221808 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 01200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE-E winds continue over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this morning due to strong high pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low. Pulses of gails will return again during the overnight hours tonight and last into the latter part of the week. Sea are forecast to build to 18-12 ft with the strongest winds. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off the Florida coast by this evening, and reach from near Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Tue. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are expected north of 27N between the front and 70W. Within this area, winds will increase to minimal gale- force just ahead of the front, particularly from 29N-31N between 74W-76W. The front will continue to push eastward on Tue, with the winds diminishing below gale- force by Tue night. Seas will build to 8- 10 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N30W to 01N44W along the coast of Brazil near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate convection is active along the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 20W-34W. Similar convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 37W-44W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02S to 04N along the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC: a quickly progressing cold front enters the Gulf through eastern Louisiana near 29N90W and reaches the eastern Texas/Mexico border near 26N97W. Scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. A surface trough stretching from Panama City, FL to 25N87W is allowing for the change of wind direction from moderate northwesterlies in the central gulf, to moderate to fresh southeasterlies in the eastern gulf, with mainly fresh ESE winds in the Florida Straits. Coastal radars show a few showers associated with the trough traveling northeastward across the Florida Panhandle. Buoy observations in the Gulf are showing 3-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, east winds in the far southwestern Gulf are converging with west-northwesterlies coming off Mexico allowing for light showers west of 92W. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to south of Brownsville, Texas by early Tue. The front will stall along 25N by Tue night, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast Thu and Thu night, and areas of sea fog is possible over the northwest Gulf by the end of the week. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the Bay of Campeche tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning has been issued for the waters off the coast of Colombia. See the Special Features section for details. GOES-16 low level water vapor imagery reveals remnants of shallow moisture across the basin, otherwise a high centered north of the area is keeping conditions in place. Fresh trade winds dominate the basin, becoming locally strong off the waters adjacent to Colombia, and within the Windward Passage. Wind speeds decrease to moderate ENE in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will diminish by late morning as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. Fresh to locally strong winds are forecast for the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Fri with pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See the Special Features section for details. A cold front extends from 32N40W to 25N60W to 24N64W, then continues westward as a stationary front to 25N77W. The tail end of this boundary is beginning to dissipate. 1013 mb high pressure is building behind the front, centered off the North Carolina coast. Recent scatterometer data confirmed fresh to strong NE to E winds within 200 nm of the section of the front that is stationary. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over open waters north of the front west of 65W. Fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 16 ft seas are ongoing west of the front to 65W. Fresh to 43W. Strong SW winds are estimated east of the front, north of 27N, with 8 to 12 ft seas. 1023 mb high pressure centered near 27N22W is shifting eastward ahead of the front. This will support generally moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds farther south. Long period NW to N swell in excess of 8 ft is noted mainly east of 50W. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the stationary front along 23N through the central Bahamas will dissipate through late today. High pressure following the front is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic S of 27N through this afternoon. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of 29N Tue. Weak ridging will extend from Bermuda to northeast Florida from mid to late week. $$ Mora