000 AXNT20 KNHC 220517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Feb 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours. Expect these conditions to continue through the middle of week. Seas are forecast to build to 8-12 ft with the strongest winds. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off the Florida coast tonight. By Tue morning, the cold front will stretch from 31N75W to 27N80W. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are expected N of 27N between the front and 70W. Within this area, winds will increase to minimal gale-force just ahead of the front, particularly from 29N-31N between 74W-76W. The front will continue to push eastward on Tue, with the winds diminishing below gale- force by Tue night. Seas will build to 8-10 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 02N35W to 00N50W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 38W-45W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection can be found S of 03N between 45W-48W, and over northern Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region anchored by a 1035 mb high located over the U.S. Middle Atlantic. Recent satellite derived wind data reveal moderate to fresh southerly return flow over much of the basin with seas of 3-5 ft range. In the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida fresh to strong easterly winds prevail with seas in the 6-8 ft range. Areas of low-level clouds with possible light rain are noted across the Gulf waters mainly N of 22N. The easterly wind flow is advecting some low-level moisture, with embedded showers over SE Florida and the Florida Key. The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf this morning. The new front will stall across the southeast Gulf along 25N late Tue, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking ahead, a third front will move to the northwest Gulf coast on Thu, where it will meander through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected near the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours. As a result, a Gale Warning is in effect. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. The same ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds prevail across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate NE-E winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will continue to move westward across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through this morning. This weather pattern will also support overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning has been issued in the western Atlantic. See the the Special Features section for details. A cold front stretches from 31N48W to 24N68W where it becomes stationary to the central Bahamas. A 120 nm wide-band of mainly low clouds, with possible showers is associated with the front. A difference in pressure between the front and strong high pressure located N of the forecast region supports a large area of fresh to strong winds in the wake of the front. It should be noted an area of strong NE winds just behind the front to about 26N affecting most of the NW and central Bahamas. Seas are in the 10-11 ft range within this area of winds E of the Bahamas. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1024 mb high pressure located near 26N33W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed per scatterometer passes around the southern periphery of this system between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The stationary portion of the front will dissipate late today. High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic through this morning. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid-week. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of 29N early Tue through Tue night. $$ GR