000 AXNT20 KNHC 212347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea and the low pressure over northern Colombia will support pulses of gale- force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Expect these conditions to begin tonight and continuing through the middle of week mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas are forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off the Florida coast overnight Monday night. By Tue morning, the cold front will stretch from 31N75W to 26N80W. Ahead of the front, S to SW minimal gale-force winds will develop from 29N- 30N between 74W-76W. The front will continue to push eastward on Tue with the winds diminishing below gale-force by Tue evening. Seas will build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 054N22W to 02N35W to 01N48W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough and near the ITCZ from 01N- 07N between 10W-32W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ and near the Brazilian coast from 01S-04N between 36W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to dominate the Gulf region anchored by a 1040 mb high located over the U.S. Middle Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data reveals moderate to fresh return flow over most of the basin with gentle to moderate E winds in the southwest Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf. Seas near 8-9 ft are north of NW Cuba in the extreme SE Gulf. A ridge extending from strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard to the central Gulf will shift east tonight ahead of cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf Mon morning. The new front will stall across the Gulf along about 23N late Tue, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking ahead, a third front will move to the northwest Gulf coast on Thu, where it will meander through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA Please see the Special Features section above for details on a gale warning off the coast of Colombia. A 1018 mb low is located in the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W with a trough extending along it from northern Belize to north- central Honduras. No significant convection is associated with this feature. High pressure north of the area is allowing dry conditions to prevail aside from scattered showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the eastern Caribbean near the Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the basin with seas ranging from 5-7 ft with upwards of 8 ft north of Colombia. High pressure north of the area building in the wake of the front will support fresh NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba this evening through Mon. The pattern will also support overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for the gale warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front stretches across the central and western Atlantic from 30N55W to 25N69W with the tail-end of the front stalling from 25N69W to northern Cuba near 23N80W. Showers are noted within 60 nm of the front. Strong N to NW winds are behind the front with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front. Seas are 12-14 ft N of 29N, 10-12 ft near the central Bahamas and 8-10 ft along the rest of the front. High pressure extends across the western Atlantic behind to front off the Florida coast. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted off the Florida coast and across the northern Bahamas with seas 8-10 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb high is located near 26N36W keeping dry conditions in place across the rest of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in this region. Seas are generally 6 to 12 ft north of 20N and east of 50W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted S of 15N and west of 35W, with 4 to 6 ft seas noted elsewhere. The cold front will move SE across the open Atlantic into Mon, then stall and weaken along roughly 22N across the central Bahamas through late Mon. High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic through Mon morning. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of 29N early early Tue through Tue night. $$ AReinhart