000 AXNT20 KNHC 210755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea and the typical low pressure found over northern Colombia will support pulses gale- force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia beginning tonight and continuing through the middle of week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas are forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-06N between 19W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf region anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure located over northern Alabama. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh NE-E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh E-SE winds over the northwest Gulf, with gentle to moderate E winds in the southwest Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. As for the forecast: The high pressure over Alabama will shift into the Carolinas through Mon in the wake of a cold front now across the northwest Caribbean. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Mon morning, and move across the basin through late Tue. Looking ahead, a third front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu morning, and reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to Tampico, Mexico Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba through Roatan to central Honduras. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over the northwest Caribbean near the front, mainly off Belize and the coast of western Honduras. Recent buoy and scatterometer satellite data indicate moderate to fresh winds west of the front and in the lee of Cuba. The buoy data also indicates seas are likely 5 to 8 ft west of the front. The same scatterometer swath indicates fresh to strong winds off Colombia, where seas are likely 7 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Regional radar indicates scattered showers in the trade wind flow in the Atlantic waters east of the Windward Island, moving mainly toward Martinique and Dominica, with isolated showers elsewhere the northern Windward Islands and and the southern Leeward Islands. As for the forecast: The stationary front from central Cuba to central Honduras will dissipate later today. High pressure north of the area building in the wake of the front will support fresh NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba tonight into Mon. The pattern will also support overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia Sun night through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N60W southwestward to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Recent buoy observations and earlier scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong northerly winds west of the front. Seas are estimated to be 7 to 10 ft in open waters in this area. Scatterometer data also indicates fresh SW winds within 120 nm east of the front, north of 29N. Farther east, a ridge is analyzed east of the front, from 1024 mb high pressure near 26N43W westward along 25N to 65W, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic waters south of 20N, and mainly gentle winds north of 20N. NW swell is supporting seas of 8 to 13 ft north of 20N and east of 40W. N swell of 6 to 9 ft is noted S of 15N and west of 35W 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. As for the forecast west of 65W: The cold front will continue to move southeast, then stall and weaken along roughly 23N across the central Bahamas through late Mon. High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic through Mon morning. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to near- gale force SW winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of 29N early Tue and Tue night. $$ Christensen