000 AXNT20 KNHC 201811 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1805 UTC SAT FEB 20 2021 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. GALES WILL RETURN AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID-WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N17W TO 02N30W TO 01S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N- 08N BETWEEN THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 10W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 17W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 250 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF BRAZIL. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1500 UTC REVEALS FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS. OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WINDS TRANSITION FROM NE-E BECOMING MODERATE WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WINDS MAY BE STRONGER DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY MON MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, A THIRD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST GULF BY WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AS OF 1500 UTC: THE COLD FRONT REACHING FROM WEST-CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1400 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT, WITHIN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6 TO 9 FT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE INDICATED TO BE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS FRESH TRADES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN, BECOMING STRONG TO NEAR GALE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO COLOMBIA. A SHIP OFFSHORE OF NE COLOMBIA NEAR 13N76W REPORTED 30 KT WINDS, AND A BUOY OBSERVATION FROM CLOSE BY ESTIMATED SEAS TO BE AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EAST OF 80W INTO SUN, WITH OVERNIGHT PULSES TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST OF 65W, A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WHERE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH N-NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WEST OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 26N. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM 6-9 FT. FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN ALONG ROUGHLY 23N ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT, REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MID-WEEK. STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N TUE AND TUE NIGHT. FARTHER EAST, 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N43W. THE HIGH IS KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TRADES TO OCCUR ABOVE 20N WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-7 FT. SOUTH OF 20N, WINDS BECOME FRESH WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF 40W. ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N32W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 29N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 15 FT SEAS WITH NW SWELL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 40W. $$ MORA