000 AXNT20 KNHC 201017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 05N20W to 01S27W to 01S35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N-04N between 10W-20W, and from 03S-03N between 25W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is building across the northern Gulf in the wake of a cold front that moved through the Gulf of Mexico earlier. Fresh to strong north winds are still ongoing over the southern Gulf, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate north winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the northwest Gulf, with gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas in the northwest Gulf. Drier air is moving into the basin and no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the high pressure will build across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the Carolinas. The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf early Mon morning, and move across the basin through Tue. Looking ahead, a third front may approach the northwest Gulf by Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front reaches from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Recent buoy and earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated 20 to 30 kt winds west of the front, with seas estimated to be 6 to 9 ft. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Winds are a little stronger off the coast of northeast Colombia where a recent ship observation confirmed 30 kt winds. Seas off the coast of Colombia are estimated to be as high as 11 ft. Moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean. A few showers are evident over the northwest Gulf near the front, and across the southeast Caribbean. For the forecast, the front will move little then stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras today, before dissipating Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the area will support fresh to strong NE winds east of 80W into Sun, fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage, and overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia Sun night through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W, a cold front passes through 32N73W through the northern Bahamas Island to central Cuba. Recent observations indicate fresh to strong N winds and seas to 8 ft west of the front. Observations from buoy 41048 near 32N69.5W provides evidence that fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front and 6 to 9 ft seas north of 28N. A surface ridge extending along 25N is supporting moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft seas farther south, except for fresh E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas off the coast of Hispaniola. For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeast then will stall and weaken along roughly 23N across the central Bahamas through late Mon. High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic tonight through Mon morning. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to near-gale force SW winds and building seas are likely ahead of the front north of 28N Tue and Tue night. Elsewhere farther east, 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 28N50W. A cold front extends from near the Canary Islands to 26N35W. The high pressure is supporting fresh trade winds and 6 to 9 ft seas farther south into the tropical waters west of 40W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 12 ft seas with NW swell accompany the front north of 25N and west of 40W. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. $$ Christensen