438 AXNT20 KNHC 200556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 05N20W, crossing the Equator along 24W, curving to 02S28W, and to 02S33W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 02N to 07N between 14W and 19W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N75W, to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to NW Cuba, to Belize. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong are in the waters that are between the Bahamas and the cold front. A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb Texas high pressure center that is near 30N97.5W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The current cold front, from near Naples in Florida to NW Cuba, will move SE and exit the basin overnight. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will continue to support strong northerly winds behind the front and south of 26N through midnight. High pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico into Sunday. The next cold front will move into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico early on Monday morning, and move across the basin through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a Colombia-to-Nicaragua/Honduras/El Salvador ridge. The GFS model for 500 mb, shows broad cyclonic wind flow, with a NW Venezuela cyclonic circulation center. The GFS model for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow, from Nicaragua eastward, and from 16N northward from 80W eastward. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea at 700 mb. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, except in the area of the NW Cuba-to-Belize cold front. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. Isolated to widely scattered moderate is in the waters that are adjacent to the Caribbean Sea side of SE Cuba. A surface trough is along 11N72W in NW Venezuela, beyond the border of Colombia and Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 14N southward from 76W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Expect E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in NW to N swell, from 11N to 17N between 65W and 81W. Gale-force wind conditions are possible, on each night from Sunday night through Wednesday night of the next week, from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W including in the Colombia Basin. Expect overnight pulses to gale-force, off the coast of Colombia. The current cold front, from the western tip of Cuba to central Belize, will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday, before dissipating on Sunday. High pressure, building in the wake of the current front that is to the north of the area, will support fresh to strong NE winds, to the east of 80W, late on Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N75W, to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to NW Cuba, to Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 29N55W. A surface ridge extends from 24N17W, to 23N36W, 29N48W, through the 1026 mb high pressure center, to 27N62W, and to the Bahamas near 22N74W. The current cold front from 31N77W to near West Palm Beach in Florida will reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba by Saturday afternoon, then begin to move slowly SE and weaken across central Cuba to the central Bahamas to the central Atlantic through late Monday. High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the western Atlantic Ocean, from Saturday night through Monday morning. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast on Monday night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tuesday night. $$ mt/ec