000 AXNT20 KNHC 191107 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the south-central Gulf northwest of Merida, Mexico. Reinforcing cold air behind the front is supporting gale force northerly winds near Tampico, and in the Veracruz region through this morning, with seas building to 14 to 16 ft. Winds and seas will diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds over the basin. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is note from 02N-05N between 10W-17W, from 03S-00N between 21W-29W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 00N-03N between 42W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the south-central Gulf northwest of Merida, Mexico. An earlier scatterometer pass along with recent buoy and platform observations show strong to near gale force northerly winds across the northwest and west-central Gulf as reinforcing cold air moves into the basin. Seas are building with Buoy 41005 in the southwest Gulf showing seas to 14 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds are evident elsewhere west of the front, with 6 to 9 ft. Moderate southerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident east of the front. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident within 120 nm east of the front. Drier conditions prevail west of the front. The front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche later this morning, exiting the basin by this evening. High pressure will be in control of the Gulf region into Sun. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sun night into Mon morning, and move across the basin through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Ship observations indicate strong to near-gale force winds off the coast of Colombia this morning, where seas are estimated to be 9 to 11 ft. These winds are due to a combination of strong high pressure north of the area, and local overnight drainage flow coming off the higher terrain along the coast. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, especially off the southern coast of Haiti, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident north of Honduras, with moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted other than a few fast-moving showers across the Windward Islands. For the forecast, a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move through the Yucatan Channel and into the northwest Caribbean tonight. The front will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat, then dissipate through Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the area will support fresh to strong NE winds Sun night, and overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia Sun night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W: a front remains stalled along the northeast Florida coast near Jacksonville. A ridge extends east to west from 1028 mb high pressure near 29N60W to east central Florida. Buoy and ship observations off northeast Florida and in the northern Bahamas show fresh to locally strong southerly winds, between the ridge and the front. Fresh to strong E winds are also evident off the coast of Hispaniola, between the ridge to the north and the higher terrain inland. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft off northeast Florida and south of 22N, with 4 to 6 ft in open seas elsewhere north of 22N. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident, but showers are approaching the waters off northeast Florida from the west ahead of a cold front. For the forecast, the cold front approaching the area from the west will move off the northeast Florida coast early today, reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba by late Sat, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba by late Sun. A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon. Looking ahead, another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue night. Elsewhere farther east, fresh to strong trade winds are evident west of 45W over the tropical Atlantic, south of the high pressure near 24N65W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the area of fresh to strong trades with a component of northerly swell. A pair of troughs east of this high pressure is allowing only moderate trade wind flow and 5 to 7 ft seas in the tropical Atlantic east of 45W. Northerly swell is starting to propagate into the waters north of 28N, east of 45W. $$ Christensen