000 AXNT20 KNHC 181829 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure system located Near the Georgia/Alabama border north of Tallahassee, Florida. A Cold front extends southwest to 18N94W in the Bay of Campeche. The altimeter data and buoy observations are showing mainly fresh northerly winds west of the front, with fresh to strong north winds in the waters near Galveston Texas. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range on either side of the frontal boundary. The cold front will continue to move eastward today. Strong high pressure associated with reinforcing cold air will tighten the pressure gradient west of the front later today. Strong northerly winds will reach gale force in the Veracruz region of the SW Gulf tonight and Fri. Seas will build to 10-16 ft near the highest winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 06N11W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the boundary from 01S-04N between 07W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico for the Veracruz region. Please see the Special Features section for more details. Widespread stratocumulus clouds blanket the waters west of the front, and a line of moderate to strong convection has developed north of 27N ahead of the front in the north-central Gulf. This line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist through today as the front moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will induce gale force northerly winds near Tampico, and in the Veracruz region tonight into Fri. Gales are also expected in the Bay of Campeche on Fri, with seas building to 14-16 ft. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight, from Ft. Myers, Florida to NE Yucatan peninsula on Fri, exiting the basin by Fri evening. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across the Gulf Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded within the low level wind flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated passing trade wind showers. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras today as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach the NW Caribbean by Fri evening, and extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat, then stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh to strong north winds will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Altimeter data shows a large area of fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the tropical North Atlantic waters, and buoy observations indicate winds are increasing north of the Bahamas and veering to the south. Broad anticyclonic wind flow associated with a 1029 mb high centered near 30N58W prevails across the west-central Atlantic. Isolated showers are noted south of 25N between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of Florida later today through Fri as a cold front moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from 31N79W to central Florida on Fri, from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas into western Cuba Fri night, from 31N67W to central Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba on Sun. A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. High pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon. $$ Torres