000 AXNT20 KNHC 180551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 10.5N to 13N between 73W and 78W, in the coastal waters of Colombia. These conditions will continue for the next 12 hours or so. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The 24-hour forecast, starting on Thursday night, consists of a low pressure center to the north of the area. A cold front will be along 30N85W 19N95W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, to the south of 24N to the W of the cold front. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 07N12W, to 05N15W, and 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W, to 01N33W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to strong is from the monsoon trough southward from 21W eastward, and from 02N southward between 38W and 41W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a south central Louisiana coastal 1009 mb low pressure center, to the coast of Mexico near 21N94W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the NW of the cold front. A warm front extends from the 1009 mb low pressure center, to SE Louisiana, and then toward the Florida west coast along 26N. The warm front continues inland in Florida, and it eventually becomes stationary, and eastward, into the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N northward between 87W and 92W in the coastal sections. The current cold front, from a southern Louisiana 1009 mb low pressure center to near Tuxpan in Mexico, will move across the basin through Friday. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds will be behind the cold front. The winds will become gale-force on Thursday night, in the Veracruz Mexico region, and then continue through Friday morning. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge. The GFS model for 500 mb, for the same area, shows broad cyclonic wind flow, with a central Caribbean Sea trough. The GFS model for 700 mb shows some cyclonic wind flow, mostly in the southern half of the Caribbean Sea. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea at 700 mb. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 81W eastward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. A surface trough is along 10N76W, to the northern side of Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal areas of Panama and Costa Rica, from 07N to 11N between 81W and 85W. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday night. Gale-force winds are expected tonight off Colombia. Strong SE winds are expected in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras, through Thursday, as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will move across the western Caribbean Sea on Friday and on Saturday, then stall and weaken on Saturday night. Strong north winds will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N75W to 30N78W to 27N80W. The front reaches inland in Florida, just to the south of the Lake Okeechobee. The front becomes warm, from just to the south of Lake Okeechobee, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N to 30N between 77W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 27N northward from 70W westward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N63W. A surface trough is along 33N35W 23N40W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 33N26W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, on either side of the surface trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop to the east of Florida on Thursday, as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from 31N77W to Fort Pierce in Florida on Friday; from 31N64W across the Bahamas to central Cuba on Saturday; then stall and weaken on Sunday. Numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front, as it moves to the east of Florida. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to locally strong winds through Friday in the Caribbean Sea approaches and passages. $$ mt/dm