000 AXNT20 KNHC 171736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pressure system of 1008 mb has developed over the NW Gulf of Mexico. The attendant cold front extends from the low center to the coast of Mexico just N of Tampico, Mexico. A stationary front stretches from South Florida to the low pressure. The stationary front will lift north as a warm front through tonight. At the same time, the new cold front will move eastward reaching from Mobile, Alabama to near Veracruz, Mexico tonight. Then, the front will stall there on Thu. Reinforcing cold air will allow the front to move again across the Gulf waters late Thu and Fri, exiting the basin by Fri evening. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, reaching gale force over the SW Gulf Thu night and Fri. Seas are forecast to build to 12-14 ft with the strongest winds. Caribbean Gale Warning: Near gale force winds are noted within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia this morning based on recent satellite-derived wind data. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support strong to minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia tonight. These conditions are possible again Sun night. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-07N between 06W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the ITCZ W of 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the SW Gulf of Mexico near the Veracruz area. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Buoys across the northern Gulf are reporting fresh to strong E to SE winds with areas of fog. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas to 9 ft near the low pressure center located over the NW Gulf. Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, dominates much of the Gulf region, particularly N of 25N and W of 94W where the frontal boundaries/low pressure are. A few showers are also noted over the SE Gulf. Thick low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of near gale force winds within about 90 nm of the cost of Colombia. with fresh to strong trade winds over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Showers carried by fresh NE winds are now affecting Puerto Rico and regional waters, and parts of Dominican Republic. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri night. Gale force winds are possible tonight and Sun night off Colombia. A Gale warning in now in effect. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to strong to near gale force tonight through Thu morning as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will move across the western Caribbean Fri evening into Sat, reaching front central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat, then stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front. Long period north swell combined with NE wind- waves will produce sea heights of 7-10 ft over tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extend from 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Scattered showers are near the frontal boundary, forecast to lift northward as a warm front through tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of Florida on Thu as another cold front moves across the NE Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the Atlantic Ocean just E of NE Florida by early Fri morning, and extend from 31N74W to South Florida by Fri evening bringing some shower activity, and cooler temperatures. Then, the front will reach from 31N68W to central Cuba by Sat morning, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by Sat night. On Sat, expected fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front as a 1035 mb high pressure settles over the Carolinas. The front is forecast to weaken over the SW N Atlantic on Sun. Currently, mainly fresh NE-E winds are observed over the NE Caribbean and the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles, particularly from 12N-22N between 48W-67W. These winds were sampled by recent scatterometer data. Elsewhere across the Atlantic forecast waters, high pressure of 1028 mb located near 31N58W will shift eastward over the next several days as the aforementioned cold front moves E of Florida. $$ GR