000 AXNT20 KNHC 162330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will tighten each night through Thu allowing for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after sunrise. Seas will build to around 10-13 ft with strongest winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further Details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to coast of Brazil near 03N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N-07N between 09W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 06S-03N between 25W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to press southward across the southeast Gulf, stretching from southwest Florida near 25N81W to the NE of the Yucatan near 21N86W where it transitions to a stationary front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 80 nm southeast of the front. High pressure continues to build across the rest of the Gulf behind the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin with seas 3-6 ft. Seas are up to 8-9 ft near the front in the eastern Gulf. Moderate northerly winds over the eastern Gulf will become east to southeast fresh winds tonight into Wed as the cold front slows down and becomes stationary over the southeastern Gulf. The front will lift back north as a warm front from late tonight through Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf tonight as a low pressure system takes shape along the central Texas coast. This low pressure system will track east-northeastward across the NW Gulf on Wed dragging a strong cold front across the western Gulf. This front is expected to reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thu afternoon, and exit the southeastern Gulf Fri afternoon. Gale conditions will be possible behind this front off Veracruz and over the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri, while fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected over the eastern Gulf and over the southern half of the central Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds will be confined to the eastern Gulf south of 27N Fri through Sat night, then expand westward while veering around to the east through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are moving are noted across the Yucatan Passage, the Florida Straits ahead of the cold front approaching the region. Showers are also moving across the Gulf of Honduras associated to a 1015 mb low pressure near 17N86W. Farther south, showers are noted off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, quick moving showers are moving throughout the central and eastern Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean with gentle winds in the western Caribbean. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 10 ft north of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale force tonight and Wed night, then possibly again Sun night. Southeast winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to move across western Caribbean Fri through Sat, then become stationary on Sat night. Strong north winds will follow the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches off the Florida coast from 31N77W to South Florida coast near 27N80W. A line of thunderstorms is noted about 80 nm southeast of the front extending from 31N to 25N between 74W to 78W. A squall line ahead of the front is analyzed from 30N76W to 27N79W, and a surface trough from 26N79W to the Florida Keys. Fresh westerly winds are noted behind the front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. Seas range 6-9 ft. East of 71W, a 1027mb high pressure is centered near 29N59W. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from a 1015 mb low near 33N37W to 27N37W. Moderate winds are noted near this feature. Another trough is located west of the Canary Islands from 31N19W to 21N22W. Light to gentle winds are noted throughout the region with seas 6-10 ft. The cold front will become stationary tonight from near 31N74W to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the western waters beginning on Thu as the next cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will move east of Florida late Thu night, reach from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba early Fri evening, from 29N65W to near the Windward Passage Sat and become stationary over the far southeastern waters Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front and become fresh to strong east winds, and expand westward across the southern waters east of 76W from Wed afternoon through Thu night and diminish Fri. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front as it moves east of Florida and over the western Atlantic. Seas will build to around 12 ft east of the Bahamas Sun and Sun night. $$ MTorres