000 AXNT20 KNHC 161745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will tighten each night through Thu allowing for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after sunrise. Seas will build to around 10-13 ft with strongest winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further Details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 02N31W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N-08N between 05W- 26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 05S-05N between 27W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to press southward across the southeast Gulf, stretching from southwest Florida near 26N82W to the northeast Yucatan near 21N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the front. High pressure continues to build across the rest of the Gulf behind the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin with seas 3-6 ft. Seas are up to 8-9 ft near the front in the eastern Gulf. Winds will diminish this afternoon behind the cold front as it reaches the far southeastern Gulf and stalls. The front will lift back north as a warm from late tonight through Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf tonight as a low pressure system takes shape along the central Texas coast. This low pressure system will track east- northeastward across the NW Gulf on Wed dragging a strong cold front across the western Gulf. This front is expected to reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thu afternoon, and exit the southeastern Gulf Fri afternoon. Gale conditions will be possible behind this front off Veracruz on Fri, while fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected over the eastern Gulf and over the southern half of the central Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds will be confined to the eastern Gulf south of 27N Fri through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast of Colombia. Scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Yucatan Passage ahead of the cold front approaching the region. Showers are also moving across the Gulf of Honduras. Farther south, showers are noted off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, quick moving showers are moving throughout the central and eastern Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean with gentle winds in the western Caribbean. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 10 ft north of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale force at night through mid week. Southeast winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to move across western Caribbean Fri through Sat, then becomes stationary on Sat night. Strong N winds will follow the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches off the Florida coast from 31N79W to the central Florida coast near 28N80W. A line of thunderstorms is noted north of the Bahamas to the south Florida coast from 31N76W to 25N80W. Fresh westerly winds are noted behind the front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. Seas range 6-9 ft. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from a 1018 mb low near 32N39W to 27N41W. Moderate winds are noted near this feature. Another trough is in the central Atlantic from 28N35W to 22N37W. Light to gentle winds are noted throughout the region with seas 6-10 ft. A trough is located west of the Canary Islands from 30N19W to 23N22W. The cold front will become stationary tonight from near 31N74W to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the western waters beginning on Thu as the next cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will move east of Florida early on Fri, extend from near 31N71W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba early Fri evening, and from 28N65W to near the Windward Passage Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front. Fresh to strong east winds will expand westward across the southern waters east of 76W from Wed afternoon through Thu night. $$ AReinhart