000 AXNT20 KNHC 161008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will tighten each night through Thu allowing for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after sunrise. Seas will build to around 11-12 ft with strongest winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further Details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters into the eastern Atlantic near 10N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 140 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W to the coast of Brazil GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches across the eastern Gulf from 29N83W to 23N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Surface ridging is building across the basin in the wake of the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds prevailing across the area. Seas in the western Gulf are analyzed to be 8-11 ft, while 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish today as the front moves away. Another low pressure system will track east-northeastward across the NW Gulf on Wed dragging a strong cold front across the western Gulf. This front is expected to reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thu, and exit the Gulf on Fri. Gale conditions will be possible behind this front off Veracruz on Thu. Strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front. Fresh to strong winds northeast winds will be over the southeastern Gulf Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong winds across the south central Caribbean outside of the gale area, while moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere. High pressure to the north of the area is allowing for dry conditions to prevail across most of the basin. The exception is in the NW Caribbean where scattered showers are moving across Cuba towards the Florida Straits. Seas in the central and eastern Caribbean are in the 6-9 ft, and 3-5 ft seas prevail in the western part of the basin. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Thu. Southeast winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to move across western Caribbean on Fri/Sat, then becomes stationary on Sat night. Strong N winds will follow the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Radar imagery depicts a line of thunderstorms stretching from Palm Coast, FL to 32N79W and continues north of our area, ahead of a cold front that currently extends across northern Florida. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the west Atlantic ahead of this front. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N59W is keeping fair weather conditions in place. Earlier scatterometer data depicted moderate to locally fresh return flow around the high across the waters west of 65W, except fresh to locally strong south of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-8 ft west of 55W and 8-12 ft to the east. High pressure over the region will support fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly winds have developed east of northern Florida ahead of a cold front that will move through the area today. The front will become stationary tonight from near 31N74W to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front Wed and dissipate Wed night. Winds will increase over the western waters beginning on Thu as the next cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move east of Florida early on Fri, and extend from near 31N71W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba late on Fri, and from 28N65W to near Windward Passage Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front. $$ ERA