000 AXNT20 KNHC 152143 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Scatterometer data and surface observations show gale force winds persisting in the western Gulf of Mexico behind and Arctic cold front. The cold front stretches from 1005 mb low pressure near the western Florida Panhandle/ Alabama border near 30N87W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Large seas around 17 ft have recently been reported in the SW Gulf at NDBC buoy 42055, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters west of the front. The gale force winds are forecast to diminish to below gale force by sunset with the large seas gradually subsiding. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will tighten tonight allowing for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after sunrise Tue, then will pulse again Tue evening until around sunrise Wed, with similar conditions possible Wed evening into early Thu. Seas will build to around 11-12 ft with these winds. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both gale warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends into the eastern Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to near the coast of Brazil at 02S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-06N between 25W-37W, and from 03S-03N between 38W-48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-07N between 08W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect in the Gulf of Mexico. An Arctic cold front stretches from 1005 mb low pressure near the western Florida Panhandle/Alabama border near 30N87W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. A warm front extends from the low eastward along 30N across the northern Florida Peninsula. Fresh to strong NW-N winds surround the area of gale force winds behind the front as described above. Fresh to strong southerly flow is occurring north of 24N and ahead of the front. A squall line with intense thunderstorms is noted north of 24N within about 45 nm ahead of the cold front. Seas are 3-6 ft ahead of the cold front. Additional convection has developed over the northwest Caribbean Sea and is propagating northward across western Cuba toward the Florida Keys. Freezing rain, light snow, and freezing spray were reported earlier at northwest Gulf coastal locations. For the forecast, winds will diminish tonight through Tue as the cold front begins to weaken as it reaches the far southeastern Gulf Tue. It is expected to become stationary, before lifting back north as a warm front Tue night and Wed. Another low pressure system will track east-northeastward across the NW Gulf on Wed and Wed night dragging a strong cold front across the western Gulf. This cold front is expected to reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thu, and exit the Gulf on Fri. Gale conditions will be possible behind this front off Veracruz on Thu. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are possible ahead of this front. Fresh to strong winds northeast winds will be over the southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast of Colombia. High pressure of 1026 mb is centered northeast of the basin near 28N59W, while 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed over northern Colombia near 10N75W. Mainly fresh to locally strong trades dominate the central and eastern Caribbean, with moderate to fresh E-SE flow in the western Caribbean, except light and variable winds in the southwest Caribbean. Seas are mainly 6-9 ft across the central and eastern Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing in the northwest Caribbean and propagating northward across western Cuba. Isolated showers on the trades can be found elsewhere, except more scattered in the northeast Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Thu. SE winds will increase in the Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to move across western Cuba, the Yucatan Channel and the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula early on Fri and over the northwestern Caribbean during the rest of Fri and through Sat as it slows down and becomes stationary into Sat night. It will be followed by strong northerly winds. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside Thu night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front extends from 32N77W to near Jacksonville, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing over northeast Florida near the boundary. Convection is also moving across the Straits of Florida toward the Florida Keys from western Cuba. High pressure of 1026 mb is near 28N58W with 1025 mb high pressure near 28N54W. Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow around the high pressures across the waters west of 65W, except fresh to locally strong south of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft north of 22N in remnant NE-E swell, and 5-8 ft south of 22N. To the east, a frontal trough reaches from 32N21W to 26N37W. A 1023 mb high is north of the frontal trough near 30N34W, while a stationary front is analyzed just north of the high along 31N/32N. Scattered showers are noted north of 24N between 22W-37W. Mainly gentle to moderate variable winds prevail around the high pressure areas north of 24N, with moderate to fresh trades dominating south of 24N. Seas of 8-12 ft in northerly swell dominate the open Atlantic waters, except 5-8 ft north of 22N between 50W-65W. For the forecast, the high pressure over the region will support fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida tonight through Tue ahead of a cold front that will move east of Florida on Tue. The front will become stationary Tue night from near 31N74W to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front Wed and dissipate Wed night. Scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong with gusty winds, along a squall line are expected ahead of the front tonight. Winds will increase over the western waters, including the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola beginning on Thu as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move east of Florida early on Fri, and extend from near 31N71W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba late on Fri, and from near 28N65W to near Windward Passage Sat and Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front. $$ Lewitsky