000
AXNT20 KNHC 141724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant 
low pressure will move off the coast of Texas tonight. The front 
will cross the Gulf on Mon and Tue and reach the Florida Straits 
by late Tue before stalling out. Gale force northerly winds are 
expected in the northwestern Gulf by early Monday to the west of 
the low pressure and behind the front. Seas will increase to 14 ft
with the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish across the
region by Mon night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 10N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 
01N35W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 
90 nm on either side of the axis west of 26W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the 
Special Features section for details. 

A stationary front enters the Gulf through the Apalachee Bay 
near 30N84W and extends SW to 24N91W. SE of the front, a 1010 mb 
surface low is centered near 26N87W, with a trough extending from
29N83W through the low to 24N89W. Associated scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 n mi east of 85W. 
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds north and west 
of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Another surface trough is over the western Gulf and extends from 
27N95W to 20N95W supporting scattered showers. 

The low will merge with the stationary front today and this 
system will weaken through tonight. A strong cold front with 
associated low pressure will move off the coast of Texas tonight, 
with gale force northerly winds expected over the northwestern 
Gulf on Monday behind the front. The next cold front will enter 
the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to
the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds 
are likely to precede and follow this front across the basin, with
gale-force winds possible off Veracruz Thu.

On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong 
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over 
northern Mexico through early next week. These winds could reach 
gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough 
and high terrain in that region. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds 
across most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with
mainly moderate winds in the western portion of the basin. Fresh 
to strong winds are likely still occurring south of Hispaniola to 
Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft
over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the 
northwest Caribbean. High pressure north of the area is allowing 
for dry conditions to prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving 
showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the middle of next week. By that time, winds off
Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
possible Wed night/early Thu. SE winds will increase in the Gulf
of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold front 
approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will 
continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of
the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 70W, a stationary front extends from 31N79W to 29N81W. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 
the front moving off the Florida coast, north of 28N. Moderate to
fresh winds are occurring within 200 n mi of the front with seas 
building to near 7 ft. To the east, a 1027 mb surface high is 
centered near 29N53W and broad ridging dominates across most of 
the Atlantic basin. Moderate to fresh E winds are evident south of
22N, to the south of the ridge. A weak cold front extends into the
discussion area near 31N28W to 26N43W with no significant weather
associated with this portion of the front. Seas in open waters 
are mostly 5-10 ft.


For the forecast, the stationary front will lift north of the 
area tonight, while the weak cold front dissipates over the next
couple of days. High pressure over the region will support fresh 
to occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. 
Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon 
night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off 
Florida Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W to 
Vero Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed night.
Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the Bahamas and 
east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through the Gulf of 
Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W Atlantic.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north 
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle 
of the week.

$$
Latto