000 AXNT20 KNHC 122323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 00N-03N between 23W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A slow moving cold front extends southwestward from a 1011 mb low centered at 24N94W to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A stationary front extends from the low northeastward to the Florida panhandle near 30N86W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nmi south of the stationary front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20N-25N west of 94W. Ship WTSZ reported near gale NNW winds in the SW Gulf at 22 UTC. Strong northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf through tonight. The slow-moving cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend low pres near 24N92W to the Bay of Campeche early Sat. The front will stall, then gradually weaken through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the central Gulf of Mexico near and east of the front through tonight. A strong cold front is expected to move off the coast of Texas early Mon, and reach from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula early Tue. Low pres may develop along this front early Mon in the NW Gulf. Gale force northerly winds are possible in the western Gulf behind the front to the west of the low on Mon. Winds and seas will diminish on Tue. Southeasterly return flow will increase over the western Gulf Tue night ahead of another cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast Wed. On a side note, the GFS and ECWMF models indicate strong westerly winds E of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. CARIBBEAN SEA... The 1022 mb Bermuda High north of the area is promoting fresh to strong E winds over S central Caribbean. Ship C6CX3 reported strong E winds just north of Venezuela at 23 UTC. No significant deep convection is occurring, though scattered showers are present in the SE Caribbean as well as near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat morning, then will increase to strong again mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominated the Atlantic between the 1022 mb Bermuda High centered near 28N63W and the 1028 mb Azores High centered near 28N27W. A weak cold front extends briefly into our waters between 32N32N to 29N42W, with no significant winds. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 30-32N between 47W-50W and between 30-32N west of 78W. A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night. The front will then stall off the Georgia and N Florida coast on Sun then lift north of the area Sun night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Sun night, then again Tue through Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night and early Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida late Tue. This front will stall from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral Wed before lifting northward. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week. $$ Landsea