000 AXNT20 KNHC 120535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet, are present, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds will slow down to less than gale-force by Friday morning. Please, refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to 04N20W, to the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters is from 05N southward between 17W and 44W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through: the Florida Panhandle, into the north central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 23N/24N. The front continues northwestward into Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the east of the front between 83W and 89W; from 94W westward from the cold front southward; and nearly everywhere to the northwest of the cold front. Areas of low clouds and patchy dense fog also are in the coastal plains and coastal waters from Texas to Florida. The current cold front, from southern Louisiana to NE Mexico, will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Friday night, then stall and weaken from Tampa Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night. A strong cold front is expected to move off the coast of Texas on Monday, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Fresh to strong north winds are expected in the western Gulf of Mexico through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, for the south and south central sections of the Caribbean Sea, shows that broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is on top of broad cyclonic wind flow at the middle levels of the atmosphere and at 700 mb. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, nearly everywhere in the Caribbean Sea. The only unaffected part is the NW part of the area, that is to the northwest of the line that runs from the central coast of Cuba in the Caribbean Sea to the central coast of Honduras. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow, mainly in the areas that are: from 74W eastward, and from 14N northward from 74W westward. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night. Gale-force winds are expected off the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds are possible in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday morning. Large north swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the middle of the next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 35N70W, to the coast of South Carolina along 32N/33N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of the Bahamas, and more to the northwest of the Bahamas, from 24N northward from 75W westward. A cold front passes through 32N39W to 29N50W. A surface trough continues from 29N50W to 29N63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 135 nm to the east and southeaste of the cold front from 29N to 32N. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 30N20W, to 27N30W, to 26N60W, and to the Florida east coast along 28N. A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Saturday night. The front will stall in the NW forecast waters on Sunday, then move to the north of the area on Sunday night. High pressure across the region will support fresh to occasionally strong winds to the north of Hispaniola through Sunday night. A weak cold front will move to the east of Florida on Tuesday. $$ mt/dm