820 AXNT20 KNHC 102206 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain pulsing gale force winds off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night, with near gale conditions prevailing into Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to around 11 ft near Colombia. Please refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-03N between 19W-21W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 01N to the north coast of Brazil between 40W- 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A disjointed stationary front extends from southern Georgia to along the coast of the Florida Panhandle to New Orleans, Louisiana, then continuing across central Louisiana to just inland along coastal Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the boundary but remaining over inland areas. Warm and moist southerly flow in the northern Gulf moving across the cool sea surface temperatures will continue to support the development and maintenance of areas of dense fog through at least early Thu. Reduced visibilities to 1 nm or less will remain possible in the areas of dense fog, especially in the coastal waters. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds dominate the basin, along with 2-4 ft seas. The stationary front is expected to remain inland tonight. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Thu, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche early Fri, where it will stall through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf early Fri through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data from earlier revealed fresh to strong trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Clusters of isolated to widely scattered showers are embedded in the trade wind flow. Seas range from 7-10 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3-6 ft across the remainder of the basin. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong at night Wed through Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage tonight. Otherwise, NE swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic waters Thu night through early next week with building seas to 9 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure northeast of Bermuda extends a cold front southwest through 32N62W to 28N68W, continuing as a dissipating stationary front to 28N73W northwest to near the border of South Carolina and Georgia. A surface trough extends from 31N79.5W to near the Florida Space Coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible near the front and trough. Areas of dense fog with reduced visibilities will develop overnight tonight in the coastal waters of northern Florida and Georgia. Winds in the western Atlantic are mainly gentle to moderate, except moderate to fresh trades prevail south of 22N. Seas are 4-6 ft across the western Atlantic, except 3 ft or less west of the Bahamas. Two 1022 mb high pressure centers centered near 30N46W and near 26N29W, allow for gentle to moderate trades to prevail across most of the basin, except locally fresh south of 20N. A cold front exists between the highs, extending from 32N28W to 27N40W where it becomes stationary and continues west-northwest to 28N54W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible north of 27N between the western high and 60W due to a mid to upper level disturbance diving east-southeast. Seas north of the front range from 9-17 ft, reaching 26 ft north of the area. The front in the western Atlantic will dissipate tonight. Return flow will establish across the region on Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Sat evening. Surface ridging extending across the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds at night between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos, and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Sat night. $$ Lewitsky