000 AXNT20 KNHC 090603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Near gale- force winds are also expected Wed night. Seas will build to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03.5N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N17W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-05N and East of 11W and scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 00N-04N between 17W-30W. Scattered showers are also noted north Of the ITCZ between 17W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from St. Petersburg, Florida near 26N82W to 26N87W, where begins to transition to a warm front and extends to the coast of Louisiana. Convection previously associated with this front has generally diminished, although widely scattered light showers persist across the Central Gulf. North of the frontal boundary, moderate to locally fresh E winds prevail between 83W and 87W, and S-SE moderate to fresh in the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail south of the front near the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is observed west of the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W To 19N91W. The front will continue to lift N as a warm front through late tonight. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northern Gulf through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico, Fri evening where it will stall through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf Fri into Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Latest scatterometer data this evening revealed fresh to strong E trades dominating the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh prevail in the eastern Caribbean. Light and gentle winds are noted North of 17N near Jamaica to the Cuban coast. Seas of 8 to 10 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat night. Gales will pulse nightly through Wed night off the coast of Colombia, with near gale conditions prevailing the rest of the week. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N60W to 28N65W, then stalls to near 27N80W. A band of thunderstorms stretches along the frontal boundary between 75W-79W. South of the front, moderate E to SE winds are occurring, with fresh NE-E winds north the stationary front E of 65W. High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 30N36W dominates much of the rest of the basin, producing moderate tradewinds across the tropics south of 23N. Seas across the tradewind belt are running 7 to 9 ft in north swell. A stationary front will lift north as a warm front overnight and be north of the area Tue. The front will transition back to a cold front N of the area and its tail will move across the northern waters Tue night through Wed early evening. Strong high pressure northeast of the area will support fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos as well as in the approaches of the Windward Passage into Fri. $$ Torres