000 AXNT20 KNHC 081004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Near gale-force winds are also expected Wed night. Seas will build to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the mouth of the Amazon near 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 13W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Early this morning, a stationary front exists from near Key West, Florida, to 23N95W. Convection previously associated with this front has generally diminished, although a few showers persist offshore South Florida. A surface trough extends NE from the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula to around 22N87W. Convection near this trough also has dissipated overnight. North of the frontal boundary, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail, with gentle winds S of the front. The front will lift N as a warm front today and be north of the area late tonight. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by late Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted across most of the east and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are observed from the Gulf of Honduras north to the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8 to 12 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft Are observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. A cluster of thunderstorms has developed just SE of Jamaica, otherwise dry conditions prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean into Fri night. Winds will pulse to gale force nightly through Tue off the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N68W to the NW Bahamas, then stalls to near Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A band of thunderstorms stretches along the cold frontal portion of the boundary, with scattered showers along the front from the Bahamas to the Florida coast. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring, with fresh NE winds behind the front. High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 30N40W dominates much of the rest of the basin, causing gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. To the south, moderate to fresh trades prevail, along with seas of 7 to 10 ft. The entire front will gradually stall today, then lift north as a warm front tonight, and out of the region Tue. The next cold front may not move off the SE U.S. coast until Thu or Fri. $$ KONARIK