000 AXNT20 KNHC 080511 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamaniam low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Mon night. Near gale-force winds are also expected Tue night. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the mouth of the Amazon near 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01S-05N between 14W-30W. Similar convection is from 00N-04N between 30W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, the cold front has stalled and extends from Marco Island, Florida to near 25N81W to 22N94W and begins to weaken near 22N97W north of Victoria, Mexico. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is associated with the front E of 86W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough has developed over the Yucatan Peninsula where some thunderstorms are flaring up in the northern coast. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds follow the front forecast to lift northward as a warm front Mon and move north of the Gulf waters by Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog to develop across the northwest and north central Gulf through mid-week. The stationary front will lift N as a warm front Mon and be north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf through mid- week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Veracruz, Mexico, by late Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted across most of the east and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are observed from the Gulf of Honduras north to the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8 to 12 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft Are observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of this week. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean into Fri night. Winds will pulse to gale force nightly through Tue off the coast of Colombia. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will continue to enhance across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 29N72W southwest to 27N78W, then stalls near West Palm Beach, Florida and continues across the Florida Peninsula. A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is along the front north of 28N. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh S-SW winds ahead of the front and fresh to strong behind the front and N of 28N. Strong to near gale force winds are also noted along 32N E of the front to about 61W. The cold front will stall from Bermuda to around Miami, Florida, Mon. The front will then lift north as a warm front and out of the region Tue. Looking ahead, a weak front will stall between NE Florida and Bermuda by Wed, and will lift north of the area Thu and Fri. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located near 32N44W. Patches of low-level moisture are noted mainly N of 15N while transverse high clouds, associated with a tropical jet stream, cover the waters between northern South America and the west coast of Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. $$ Torres