000 AXNT20 KNHC 072315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamaniam low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Mon night. Near gale-force winds are also expected Tue night. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-02N between 17W-31W. Similar convection is within about 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W- 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front from extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to near to Poza Rica, Mexico. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is associated with the front E of 87W. The tail end of this band reaches the NE of the Yucatan Peninsula where some tstms are flaring up. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds follow the front forecast to lift northward as a warm front Mon and move north of the Gulf waters by Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog to develop across the northwest and north central Gulf through mid week. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds across most of the east and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are noted between eastern Cuba and Jamaica while mainly gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. Seas of 8 ft or greater can be found in the central Caribbean. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of this week. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N77W across South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is just ahead of the front affecting parts of South Florida and the NW Bahamas. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong S-SW winds ahead of the front and N of 27N. Strong to near gale force winds are also noted along 30N E of the front to about 75W. This system will stall from 30N65W to near Fort Lauderdale, Florida by Mon. The front will then lift north as a warm front and out of the SW N Atlantic by Tue. Looking ahead, a weak front will stall between NE Florida and Bermuda by Wed, and will lift north of the area Thu and Fri. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure located near 32N39W. Patches of low level moisture are noted mainly N of 15N while transverse high clouds, associated with a tropical jet stream, cover the waters between northern South America and the west coast of Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. $$ GR